Analysis: If there is a long-term interruption in the supply of Middle Eastern oil, India is one of the most vulnerable countries to be affected.
India is one of the world's largest oil importers. If the Middle East conflict leads to long-term disruption of shipping, India could become one of the countries most easily affected by oil supply shocks. Despite being one of the buyers of oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz, India's situation is particularly vulnerable as the country with the largest population globally. Energy consulting firm Kpler analyst Sumit Retolia stated that India's "commercial crude oil inventories are around 100 million barrels." In a report on Monday, he wrote, "Imports through the Strait of Hormuz average around 2.5 million barrels per day. These reserves could theoretically support about 40 to 45 days of import demand in the event of an oil supply disruption." Kpler stated in February that, under pressure from the United States, India was reducing its imports of Russian oil and seemed to be increasing supply from the Middle East. However, analysts suggest that the current volatility in the Middle East could now force India to turn to other sources for oil procurement. Kpler suggests that if alternative supplies cannot be obtained promptly, India is "likely to increase its purchases of Russian oil."
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