The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March is 98%.

date
25/02/2026
According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 2%, with a 98% probability of keeping rates unchanged. The probability of the Fed lowering rates by a cumulative 25 basis points in April is 15.9%, with an 83.8% probability of keeping rates unchanged, and a 0.3% probability of lowering rates by 50 basis points. The probability of the Fed lowering rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by June is 42.7%.
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