Lates News

Traders in the futures and options markets in the United States are betting that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates next year instead of raising them. The spread of the secured overnight financing rate futures (SOFR) closely related to the Fed's expected policy is significantly inverted - indicating that traders are starting to anticipate a longer duration of loose monetary policy. Previously, traders had been betting that the Fed would cut rates twice by 25 basis points before returning to raising them in 2027. However, the increasing debate surrounding the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market has prompted them to reassess this expectation. Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global, stated: "The question is how artificial intelligence will lead to inflation; the only possible aspect of artificial intelligence that could lead to inflation is the construction of data centers and their related energy requirements." Meanwhile, traders in the spot market lack confidence on how to allocate US Treasury bonds. The latest client survey from JPMorgan (as of the week ending February 23) shows neutral position sizes reaching a new high since the end of 2024.