CITIC Securities: Still expect that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates during Powell's term.

The China Securities research report pointed out that in January 2026, the number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate was lower than expected. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, with the education and health services sector supporting the overall increase in private sector employment. The U.S. job market is still mainly characterized by shrinking recruitment, with actual layoffs not yet widespread but intentions to layoff increasing. Before the release of the January non-farm report, the market was more concerned about the revision of the 2025-March benchmark final value, fearing that the annual revision would exceed one million. However, the final value, which was close to the initial value, did not cause a stir, but it was the better-than-expected employment data in January that led to a downward revision of market expectations for interest rate cuts. We still expect that Powell will no longer cut interest rates during his term, and believe that under Powell's leadership as Fed chair, there will be 1-2 cuts of 25bps in the second half of the year.