Industrial Securities: The volatility of US technology stocks in 2026 will increase.

Guosen Securities research report stated that the valuation of US stocks is at historical highs, with the risk premium remaining low. Amid concerns about the AI bubble theory, volatility in the US technology stock market in 2026 will increase. 1) Currently, the valuation of the S&P 500 is at historical highs, with the risk premium at historical lows. However, with the support of fiscal and monetary "double looseness" policies, coupled with expectations of a significant increase in total factor productivity brought about by the grand narrative of AI, the probability of a substantial devaluation is also low. 2) However, the current low risk premium rate and high valuation system are essentially based on the three elements of "loose policy expectations - high growth expectations - technology innovation premium." Any disruption in any of these elements could trigger a temporary reassessment of the risk premium in the market. In particular, if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cuts interest rates, there is a need to be vigilant in the second half of 2026 for a new consensus on deteriorating US inflation, thus driving the risk premium back up.