Preview of US Stock Market | U.S. stock index futures mixed, Tesla rises premarket, Warsh boosts market expectations that the Fed will hold steady in October

Premarket Market Moves 1. On Friday, October 16, in the U.S. premarket session, the three major U.S. stock index futures were mixed. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.08%, S&P 500 index futures were up 0.14%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.12%. 2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index was up 0.91%, the U.K.'s FTSE 100 index was down 0.04%, France's CAC 40 index was up 0.26%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was up 0.62%. 3. As of press time, WTI crude oil was down 0.04% at $97.93 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 0.39% at $106.33 per barrel. Market News Warsh strikes a positive tone on AI's long-term outlook, while the market maintains expectations that the Fed will hold steady in October. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh did not dispel market expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting at the end of the month. On Friday, Warsh reiterated that the Fed will achieve price stability and described the September rate hike as removing "a portion of accommodation." For the October monetary policy meeting, he made clear that he would not prejudge the path of the Fed's monetary assets and was unwilling to announce in advance possible actions at the remaining meetings this year, stressing that each Fed decision will be based on output, employment, and inflation rather than a preset policy path, and reiterating that he personally prefers that the Fed provide no forward guidance at all. At the same time, in his remarks, Warsh described AI as the most profound economic transformation of his lifetime, while also emphasizing that AI's shock to the demand side will appear before supply-side improvements. Warsh's remarks reinforced the judgment that frontier AI technology will change the economy over the long term, but did not offer a commitment to a rate pause in October. For global semiconductor stocks, which have recently suffered sharp selloffs and fallen into correction territory, the positive aspect is that he did not further reinforce recent rate-hike expectations, but whether U.S. Treasury yields can continue to cool and whether the recently battered AI computing-themed stocks and even the broader semiconductor and technology-related sectors can launch a counterattack still depends on whether inflation, corporate financing conditions, and AI profit realization can improve simultaneously. Wall Street braces for Bessent to act again: the aftermath of the August "Treasury twist" has not faded, and the November refunding announcement may become the next flashpoint. As the Treasury prepares to update its debt management plan in November, key clues may emerge on Friday. Traders are closely watching the quarterly financing survey questionnaire that the U.S. Treasury sends to primary dealers on Friday, trying to determine whether Bessent is preparing to reduce long-term U.S. Treasury supply or further expand buybacks in the new round of financing plans to be announced in November. The market is highly sensitive because of an unexpected move by the Treasury in August. At that time, Bessent suddenly expanded the scale of old-bond buybacks, increasing repurchases of 10- to 30-year Treasuries beyond the normal quarterly financing arrangements. The move was dubbed by the market as a "Treasury twist operation" and was widely interpreted as an attempt to ease pressure from rising long-term yields. "Don't fight AI!" HSBC: The bond market storm cannot stop stocks from pushing higher, and the AI main line remains constructive. HSBC Global Investment Research's latest view stated bluntly that investors should not "fight the AI trade." The bank believes that the AI sector's earnings momentum is strong, its monetization path is becoming clearer, and valuations are no longer expensive after adjustment, leaving the overall risk-reward ratio still attractive. HSBC strategists pointed out that AI remains one of the hardest trends in the current market to oppose. Monetization signals continue to be positive. At the same time, accelerating demand for AI inference is driving stronger cloud revenue at major hyperscalers, while GPU rental prices remain firm. This means the AI industry chain is shifting from a "capex story" to a "revenue realization story," easing market concerns about returns on computing investment. The recent bond selloff has pushed yields higher, which would normally pressure high-valuation growth stocks. However, stock market performance shows that the earnings support behind the AI main line is offsetting the impact of rising rates. HSBC believes that as long as AI monetization continues to be validated, corporate IT spending tilts toward AI, and demand for cloud and computing power remains strong, the AI-driven stock market rally still has further potential. Does the U.S. stock market's "hidden bear market" conceal a big opportunity? Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. predicts that "three sources of buying" are poised to return. A latest report released by well-known Wall Street financial research firm The Kobeissi Letter shows that the U.S. stock market's benchmark index remains at highs, but valuations have already "entered winter." In the firm's view, energy inflation, U.S. Treasury yields, and rate-hike expectations have depressed the valuations the market is willing to pay; if these pressures ease and earnings continue to be realized, technology stocks led by the "Magnificent Seven" could see a strong valuation recovery. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s capital flows team provides another bullish clue: the reopening of corporate buyback windows, year-end retail inflows, and post-election foreign buying may bring incremental demand for stocks whose valuations have been compressed. Together, the two point to the same conclusion: high-quality technology growth assets that can continue to deliver strong earnings are expected to benefit simultaneously from capital inflows and valuation recovery. Is a "mega bull market" brewing within the S&P 500? A hedge fund titan bets on the "other 493 stocks." AI concept stocks have recently come under continued pressure, but hedge fund titan Thomas Hayes believes investors may be overlooking another change taking place in the U.S. stock market: while the S&P 500 remains dominated by a handful of large technology stocks, a broader market within the index is brewing a strong rally. Hayes, founder and managing member of Great Hill Capital, expects that over the next six months, the "other 493 stocks" in the S&P 500, excluding a few large technology companies, may become the main driver of market gains. Hayes's judgment is based on changes in the AI investment logic: in the past, investors were eager to buy companies that provide chips and computing power for AI infrastructure construction; but as competition intensifies and supply increases, these companies' high margins may be difficult to sustain. By contrast, companies that can use AI to boost productivity and expand margins may be the more noteworthy investment direction for the next stage. Individual Stock News Memory chip stocks fell broadly in premarket trading. On Friday in the U.S. premarket session, as of press time, SK Hynix (SKHY.US) fell nearly 3%, Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) and SanDisk (SNDK.US) fell more than 2%, and Western Digital Corporation (WDC.US) and Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX.US) fell more than 1%. After nearly a decade of delays, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US)'s next-generation Roadster finally makes its debut: 0 to 100 km/h in 0.81 seconds, capable of flight, with mass production only in 2028. After a delay of nearly ten years, Tesla, Inc.'s second-generation Roadster has finally been unveiled. The second-generation Roadster supercar appeared at the launch event, equipped with a cold-gas propulsion system code-named "A71" developed jointly with SpaceX (SPCX.US). In the demonstration, the vehicle can drive up a nearly vertical wall and attach to it, land in the air like a rocket, and perform rolls and jumps. From a financial perspective, analysts believe Roadster's direct contribution to Tesla, Inc.'s overall sales is expected to be limited. Positioned as a high-end, low-volume vehicle, it will compete with high-performance models from brands such as Porsche, Lamborghini, and Ferrari NV, but its high margins may make it a considerable source of profit. As of press time, Tesla, Inc. was up more than 3% in Friday's U.S. premarket session, while SpaceX was up more than 1%. Ending its 40-year partnership with PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP.US), KFC in the United States will switch to The Coca-Cola Company (KO.US)! KFC in the United States announced a new partnership with The Coca-Cola Company. Starting in January 2027, KFC will move its U.S. beverage partnership to The Coca-Cola Company, and by spring 2027, The Coca-Cola Company products are expected to be available in all KFC restaurants across the United States. Since PepsiCo, Inc. acquired KFC in 1986, U.S. locations have served beverages under PepsiCo, Inc. KFC U.S. President Catherine Tan-Gillespie said PepsiCo, Inc. remains an important partner for KFC's parent company and its international markets. PepsiCo, Inc. said its cooperation agreements with Taco Bell and KFC's international business were recently renewed. Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Class A (IBKR.US) third-quarter revenue rose 16% year over year, and the company announced a more than 70% increase in its quarterly dividend. Driven by growth in net interest income and commission income, Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Class A's third-quarter net revenue was $1.914 billion, up 15.6% from $1.655 billion a year earlier; adjusted net revenue excluding special items was $1.872 billion, up 16.3% from $1.610 billion a year earlier. In terms of revenue structure, net interest income remained Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Class A's most important source of revenue. In the third quarter, the company's net interest income was $1.154 billion, up 19% from $967 million a year earlier, mainly driven by an increase in the average margin loan balance and customer credit balances. On commissions, Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Class A's third-quarter commission revenue was $602 million, up 12% from $537 million a year earlier. The company said this was mainly due to an 18% year-over-year increase in daily average revenue trades (DARTs) and higher regulatory fees passed through to customers. Alcoa Corporation (AA.US) third-quarter revenue was $3.7 billion, up nearly 24% year over year. Alcoa Corporation's third-quarter revenue was $3.704 billion, up 23.7% year over year, but down 6.6% from the previous quarter; net income attributable to the company was $483 million, higher than $407 million in the previous quarter; earnings per share were $1.81, higher than $1.53 in the previous quarter. Excluding special items, Alcoa Corporation's third-quarter adjusted net income was $485 million, lower than $562 million in the previous quarter; adjusted earnings per share were $1.82, lower than $2.12 in the previous quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $789 million, down 12.4% quarter over quarter. Key Economic Data and Event Preview Beijing time 21:15 U.S. September industrial production month-over-month rate