Continuous buybacks + positive acquisition news stimulus, how can delisted SCIENTECH (02291) revive its stock price?

Title context: Continuous buybacks + positive acquisition news stimulus, how can delisted SCIENTECH (02291) revive its stock price? Text: After its intraday stock price hit a phased high of HK$15.51 on August 21 this year, SCIENTECH (02291), whose buyout failed, went through a deep V-shaped correction. Especially in the first half of September, SCIENTECH's stock price at one point retraced more than 30% from its previous high. But after losing the liquidity support of the Stock Connect, its stock price instead staged a rebound from the second half of September to now, returning to its early September level. Stock buybacks and acquisition expectations are undoubtedly important factors supporting its stock price in completing a technical repair. The "V-shaped" trend after the interim report disclosure At 8:00 p.m. on August 21, SCIENTECH disclosed its 2026H1 financial report. Investors paid great attention to this financial report. Because on August 20 and 21 before the financial report was disclosed, SCIENTECH's stock price showed obvious unusual movement. It was observed that on August 20, SCIENTECH's stock price rose by more than 35% at one point during the session, but ultimately closed up only 6.75%, thereby drawing a notable long upper shadow on the chart; the next day, the company's stock price opened lower and moved higher, surging all the way to a maximum gain of 26.44%, and finally closed up 20.53%, which was also the second time this year that SCIENTECH closed up more than 20% in a single day. However, the market's early trading did not seem to be because of the company's performance. The financial report showed that the company's first-half revenue was 310 million yuan, down 5.94% year on year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 147 million yuan, down 19.49% year on year. Such performance clearly failed to exceed previous market expectations. Compared with this 2026H1 financial report, a transaction announcement disclosed by SCIENTECH half an hour later was the main driver of its pulse-like gain. The announcement showed that SCIENTECH planned to acquire a 54.2384% stake in Shanghai Minwei Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Minwei Biotech") for 1.088 billion yuan in cash. However, the landing of this announcement did not bring SCIENTECH a main upward wave. Instead, it formed a technical structure on the chart of "shrinking volume and ebbing after the event pulse." Judging from previous public information, SCIENTECH had not disclosed matters related to the acquisition, so the "extreme" long upper shadow on August 20 was more like an early game between bulls and bears in the market over the positive expectations around the company's financial report timing, and profit-taking before the formal announcement the next day. It is worth mentioning that in the trading on August 20 and 21, SCIENTECH's stock price formed a "double top structure" at the high of HK$15.50, and the stock price subsequently failed to break through this area, instead fluctuating in the HK$13-14 range; at the same time, SCIENTECH's total stock trading volume on August 20 and 21 was about 18.17 million shares, with turnover of HK$251 million, equivalent to nearly 50 times the previous average daily volume, which also indicated that market divergence further widened after the acquisition announcement rather than forming a consensus bullish view. However, the enlarged market divergence at the high to some extent released a wave of stress for this "pulse-style rise." Subsequent market action showed that under the influence of "exit from Stock Connect" and interim performance, the company's stock price continued to fall after the high of HK$15.51, until it closed at HK$10.57 on September 18, with a range decline of about 13.2% and a retracement of about 31.9% from the previous high. After the high-level divergence, SCIENTECH's subsequent average daily trading volume shrank significantly. On September 18, single-day volume was 200,000 shares, only about one-fifth of its range average. This also showed to a certain extent that in the later part of the decline range, SCIENTECH did not experience panic selling on heavy volume, but rather a low-volume slow decline caused by insufficient buying support. From a technical perspective, although during the above stage both the short- and medium-term bearish moving average alignment and the ADX indicator showed that bears were still dominant in SCIENTECH until mid-to-late September, at the same time the marginal convergence of volatility also indicated that some investors were shifting from divergent trading to low-volume observation. This may precisely be the technical signal indicating a shift from weak bottom-seeking to bullish repair, and this signal was continuously strengthened by the market's sustained expectations for SCIENTECH's continuous buybacks combined with the acquisition of Minwei Biotech, ultimately contributing to the company's stock price repair from late September to now. Buyback support + positive stimulus, how far can this rally go? After September 18, SCIENTECH's stock price showed an obvious strengthening pattern. During the session on September 18, SCIENTECH's stock price fell to HK$10.10 at one point, but then stopped falling, rebounded, and steadily moved higher. On October 7, the company's stock price closed at HK$13, returning to its early September level. The main driver of this rally was undoubtedly the aforementioned acquisition. It is understood that this acquisition of Minwei Biotech is both an internal asset restructuring within SCIENTECH's parent company and a cross-sector integration of "devices + drugs." For SCIENTECH, acquiring Minwei Biotech is not an ordinary asset injection. According to the acquisition announcement, Minwei Biotech has three major technology development platforms: GPCR agonist screening, RAF ultra-long-acting molecules, and Dual-siRNA, and has thereby developed six candidate drugs at different clinical stages, covering the GLP-1/GIP multi-target track in chronic disease directions such as obesity, dyslipidemia, and hypertension. Among them, the fastest advancing is MWN109 injection (obesity indication), which has entered phase III clinical trials. In addition, in 2025 Minwei Biotech also licensed MWN105 (GLP-1/GIP/FGF21 triple agonist) to Sidera. The upfront payment and near-term milestone payments totaling US$35 million have been received, plus up to US$1.01 billion in milestone payments and sales royalties, and it also obtained a 9.99% equity stake in Sidera. This licensing directly enabled it to turn profitable that year. After the injection of Minwei Biotech's assets, SCIENTECH is expected to transform from a device stock suppressed by centralized procurement into a platform pharmaceutical stock holding heavyweight innovative drug assets such as GLP-1 and siRNA as well as overseas licensing milestone expectations. In short, the company will usher in a "valuation anchor switch." In addition, since the beginning of this year, SCIENTECH has also continued to carry out small, quick-step buybacks. Year to date, it has repurchased 45 times, with 4.138 million shares repurchased, accounting for 1.19% of its total share capital, with a cumulative amount of HK$47.2722 million. From September 18 to October 7, although SCIENTECH's actual buyback amount was only HK$894,700, not large relative to its average daily turnover of HK$2.21 million, the "bottom support signal" brought by the buybacks combined with the positive stimulus of the company's acquisition became the core reason why the market was willing to reprice it. Based on range closing prices, the company's stock price rose by about 22.99% cumulatively from September 18 to October 7, and the maximum drawdown during the period was only 2.54%, which also indicated that during this round of gains, SCIENTECH had relatively stable off-market buying support. However, this rebound was not a volume-driven main upward structure, because although its price structure had already strengthened, average daily trading volume was significantly lower than in the previous stage, and the company's stock price also did not break through the upper resistance level of HK$13.50. Therefore, SCIENTECH is still in a "low-volume repair" stage. It has been observed that although the acquisition was officially announced as early as August 21, the above acquisition transaction still requires procedures such as a circular and independent shareholders' approval. SCIENTECH announced on September 21 that the circular was delayed to be sent on or before October 19, which also affected market sentiment. SCIENTECH's current "low-volume repair" stock price trend may precisely be a concrete manifestation of the market not fully pricing it in on the basis of "completing the acquisition," and this also means that the pace of fulfillment of the acquisition case may become a key variable affecting SCIENTECH's subsequent stock price trend.