Is the global asset revaluation window opening? Trump's approval rating has hit a new low, and economic grievances have become the biggest variable in the midterm elections.

With less than two months until the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to a record low during his term. A national poll conducted by London-based nonpartisan research firm Focaldata, commissioned by the Financial Times, surveyed 1,914 registered voters from August 28 to September 1, revealing that only 33% of registered voters approve of Trump's performance as president, a drop of 3 percentage points from the previous month, marking the lowest level since the poll began in May of this year. Economic and Cost of Living: The "Eye of the Storm" for Public Discontent Poll data clearly indicates that voters' increasing dissatisfaction with the economy and living costs is the core driver of Trump's declining approval rating. Collapse of Economic Confidence: Nearly two-thirds (about 64%) of registered voters believe the U.S. economy is heading in the wrong direction. Deteriorating Personal Finances: 57% of respondents indicated that their personal financial situation has worsened during Trump's presidency. This figure has risen by 4 percentage points from the previous month's 53%. Eroding Support Within the Party: Even within the Republican Party, support for Trump's economic policies is waning. Only 53% of Republican voters approve of his handling of employment and the economy, a significant drop of nearly 8 percentage points from last month. Tariffs and the War with Iran: The Backlash of Policy Effects Becomes Evident Trump's hallmark trade and foreign policies are now becoming political liabilities. Widespread Doubts about Tariff Policies: As many as 56% of registered voters oppose Trump's decision to impose a 50% tariff on approximately $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, which includes over 60% of independent voters and nearly one-third of Republican voters. This move has triggered retaliatory tariffs from Canada of up to 50%, escalating trade tensions. Ongoing Impact of the Iran War: Over the past six months, the Trump administration has failed to end the war with Iran, which has continually driven up the costs of borrowing, fuel, and consumer goods in the U.S. For example, the price of diesel, a critical fuel for American agriculture and industry, hit a record high of $5.85 per gallon last Friday. Election Trends: Expanding Democratic Advantage, Trump Becomes a Double-Edged Sword for the GOP Polls indicate that low support levels are evolving into a substantive threat to Republican electoral prospects. Expanded Voting Intent Gap: In terms of voting intentions, Democrats currently lead Republicans by 7.5 percentage points, widening the gap from last month's 5-point advantage. The "Trump Effect" Backfires: 46% of voters believe Trump's involvement makes it harder for Republican candidates to win. Particularly among independent voters, 47% stated that Trump's endorsement would make them less inclined to support a candidate. Market Insights: Political Risk Premium Being Repriced Trump's historic low approval rating is having profound effects on financial markets. With less than two months until the midterm elections, the polling results represent a warning sign for Republicans seeking to maintain control of Congress. Although Trump himself is not running, midterm elections are traditionally viewed as a referendum on the sitting president. Bank of America Issues Heavy Warning: Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America, noted that if Democrats sweep both houses in the midterm elections, it would constitute a significant risk event that could trigger a decline of over 10% in U.S. stocks, while also weakening the dollar and lowering bond yields, increasing the risk of an AI bubble burst. Continued Pressure in the Bond Market: The increased borrowing costs associated with the Iran war are directly reflected in the bond market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond remains persistently high, while the 30-year Treasury yield briefly exceeded 5.3%. Hartnett warned that global bond yields have now surged to a 20-year high, presenting the largest threat to the current boom in AI capital expenditures. Underestimation of Tail Risks by the Market: Analysts have pointed out that the current market is underpricing the volatility that could arise from the midterm elections. Whether due to the policy uncertainty from a Democratic sweep or the potential for a more aggressive tariff and foreign policy from Trump following an unexpected Republican victory, either scenario could become new sources of market volatility. The continued decline in Trump's approval ratings is not merely a personal political crisis; it has also become a structural force reshaping the risk pricing in the U.S. financial markets. As Election Day approaches, the trajectory of this political storm will profoundly influence the next direction of U.S. stocks, the dollar, and global asset allocation.