After the non-farm payrolls report, the U.S. stock market is: Inflation data will test interest rate hike expectations, and Apple's foldable iPhone makes its debut.

Last Friday, the Nasdaq index closed down 0.3%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.4%, and the Dow Jones index dipped 0.5%. The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines under the impact of better-than-expected non-farm payroll data. This coming Monday coincides with the U.S. Labor Day holiday, resulting in a day off for U.S. stock markets. After a brief respite, investors will face a tightly-packed trading week. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These are the last important inflation data ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on September 15-16, and expectations for interest rate hikes will face decisive validation. At the same time, Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) will unveil its fall product lineup, marking the first product launch under new CEO John Ternus since taking over; meanwhile, Oracle Corporation's (ORCL.US) earnings report is seen by Wall Street as a key factor in assessing the strength of AI demand. With the U.S. PPI and CPI set to make headlines, interest rate hike expectations face critical validation. Last week's employment report has skewed market consensus toward a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September. Against this backdrop, investors' attention will be sharply focused on this Friday's Consumer Price Index (CPI)this data will allow Fed decision-makers to examine the inflation situation, which has exceeded targets for five consecutive years. The Producer Price Index (PPI) released on Thursday will offer preliminary insights into price changes from the wholesale side. Before last Friday's non-farm data was announced, market betting on whether the Fed would raise rates in September was roughly fifty-fifty. Prior to that, the market expected that August non-farm employment would only increase by 55,000 jobs. However, data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that 162,000 new jobs were created in August, far exceeding Wall Street's most optimistic predictions, which led to an increase in rate hike expectations for the Fed's September meeting. Economists and market observers pointed out that the real test for Fed Chairman Kevin Walsh and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be this week's inflation data, as Walsh has made it clear that price stability is his top priority for leading the Fed. Bill Adams, Chief Economist at PNC Bank, wrote in a report: "For the Fed, the employment report has clearly pointed the focus of the next meeting toward inflation issues. The next decision will be very subtle. The upcoming CPI and PPI data could determine whether the Fed opts to raise rates or hold its ground." This view echoes Walsh's own inaugural keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. In his speech, he emphasized that the Fed's 2% inflation target is unwavering, and controlling overheating inflation is the Fed's responsibility. Walsh stated: "Price stability will not be achieved automatically, and inflation may not return to the mean. The Fed's duty is to maintain price stability." Now, inflation has been above the 2% target for nearly five consecutive years, and Walsh has repeatedly stressed the inflation issue in public appearances, leading investors to wonder: when will the Fed take action? This Friday, the course of this debate will become clearer. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates; global tightening expectations are heating up. The European Central Bank will announce its latest interest rate decision on Thursday, and the market widely expects a 25 basis point rate increase. This judgment is based on the Eurozone's inflation rate, which soared to 3.3% in August, marking the highest level in nearly three years and far exceeding the ECB's 2% target. ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel also warned that high energy costs could keep inflation above the 2% target for an extended period and that vigilance is required regarding the transmission of "second-round effects" to wages and broader prices. Surveys indicate that all 65 economists polled predict a rate hike this week, but a more critical divergence lies in the subsequent signalsif the ECB clearly signals "stop" after the rate hike, it would result in the shortest rate-hiking cycle since 2011. Conversely, if President Christine Lagarde emphasizes that inflation pressures remain unresolved, it would open the door for a third rate hike this year, further intensifying global tightening expectations. Carsten Brzeski, Global Head of Macro at ING, believes that under pressure from public finances and rapidly rising bond yields, the ECB will find it difficult to choose further tightening measures. He stated that in the face of typical supply-side shocks, if the ECB continues to raise rates, it could actually increase the risk of economic recession. Apple Inc. Launch Event: The Foldable Screen Unveiled, Ternus's First Major Test Another major market catalyst this week comes from the consumer electronics sectoron September 9, local time (1:00 AM Beijing time on September 10), Apple Inc. will hold its fall product launch event, marking the first major product showcase under newly appointed CEO John Ternus after succeeding Tim Cook. The biggest suspense of this event is the long-rumored first foldable iPhone, while high-end models such as the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max will also be unveiled, although the latter will focus more on pricing increases. According to TrendForce, the overall cost of the iPhone 18 Pro has increased nearly 40% year-on-year due to rising storage prices. Well-known journalist Mark Gurman revealed that Cook will attend the launch event but will not appear in the event's video, signifying a complete transfer of power. Oracle Corporation Earnings Report: Can IaaS Growth Shatter Financing Anxiety? Another highlight in the tech sector is Oracle Corporation's quarterly earnings report, which will also be the last earnings release from a major cloud provider in this cycle. Analysts will look for signals regarding its progress in data center expansion and financing strength. Oracle Corporations stock has fallen nearly 20% year-to-date and has accumulated a nearly 30% decrease over the past 12 months, primarily due to market concerns over its large-scale issuance of bonds for data center construction. However, despite the stock price adjustment and emerging financial concerns, Bank of America Corp. analyst Tal Liani remains optimistic about Oracle Corporation's earnings report. Liani wrote in a report that as Oracle Corporation "expands its data center footprint," its Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) revenue is expected to grow 25% quarter-on-quarter and surge 116% year-on-year. He pointed out that the accelerated advancement of the company's infrastructure will support an uptick in revenue growth, while customers' prepayments are expected to alleviate earlier financing concerns that dominated market narratives. Liani wrote last Friday: "We are optimistic about Oracle Corporation's risk-return profile because we believe Wall Streets consensus expectations have taken into account the challenges facing its balance sheet but have yet to fully incorporate the potential for accelerated revenue growth once data center construction milestones are achieved." Liani also cautioned that while most attention is focused on Oracle Corporation's infrastructure business, its software products should not be overlooked. Bank of America expects this quarter's cloud Software as a Service (SaaS) revenue to grow 12.8%, higher than last quarter's 10.3%. Liani wrote: "Although Oracle Corporation's stock story primarily revolves around infrastructure, we believe that its traditional software business remains an indispensable part of the investment logic." U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates: How Will the Oil Price Storm Impact the Ballot Box? The U.S.-Iran military conflict continues, with the U.S. military stating that it has recently struck three Iranian oil tankers. In response, Iran has attacked multiple tankers and U.S. vessels, while warning ships in the Persian Gulf to avoid illegal waterways. On Monday, WTI crude oil futures briefly rose over 1%, reaching $92.57 per barrel. It is noteworthy that the energy market crisis is spreading. Last Friday, U.S. diesel prices soared to a historic peak. The ongoing conflicts in Iran and Ukraine are exerting structural pressures on the already tight global main fuel market, driving prices higher. Data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) showed that last Friday's retail diesel average price rose to $5.85 per gallon, significantly surpassing the previous record of $5.816 set in June 2022. At that time, this occurred just months after the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which marked the beginning of the European energy crisis. Diesel is an indispensable fuel for the global economy, supporting various aspects of global goods tradewhether its the large trucks transporting goods across regions or the vast fleets of cargo ships maintaining maritime trade, all rely on diesel. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has disrupted refined oil supplies in the Persian Gulf region, while the ongoing assaults by the Ukrainian military on Russian refineries have led to some capacity shutdowns in this key global diesel supplier. By 2025, the Middle East and Russia combined are expected to account for about one-third of global diesel exports. In the U.S., inventories of distillate fuels, including diesel and gasoline, are currently at their lowest level for this time of year on record. These shortages coincide with the upcoming winter heating season in the Northeast, during which fuel demand typically soars as consumers turn on their heating. Patrick DeHaan, Vice President of Oil Analysis at GasBuddy, stated: "U.S. diesel prices have never been this high, and this will gradually be reflected in the prices of every item consumers purchase. Record diesel prices will begin to permeate the entire economy." Soaring diesel prices are also putting new political pressure on the Trump administration. With less than two months until the U.S. midterm elections, the ongoing rise in fuel prices may become an uncomfortable topic for the government. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury will kick off its previously announced "doubling" of U.S. debt buyback plans this week, with related adjustments effective September 9. The Republican National Committee is set to hold its first midterm election conference from September 9-10, where Trump and J.D. Vance are expected to deliver keynote speeches. The market will be focused on economic policy proposals regarding tariffs, fiscal matters, and immigration.