Brokerage Morning Meeting Highlights | The Market May Enter a Chaotic Phase in the Future

Last Friday, the Innovation and Entrepreneurship Index collectively surged before pulling back, having previously risen over 1%. The total trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached 2.1 trillion yuan. In terms of sectors, concepts such as agriculture, chemicals, PTFE, cybersecurity, supernodes, and AI applications performed actively. On the downside, the pharmaceutical sector fluctuated lower. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.68%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.41%. Huatai Securities believes that the imbalance between earnings and holdings continues to rebalance; The Pacific Securities asserts that the current A-share market is in a phase of simultaneous external disturbances and internal support; Minsheng Securities feels that the market may enter a chaotic state in the next phase. Huatai Securities: The imbalance between earnings and holdings continues to rebalance The market will next face multiple validations from the August non-farm payroll and CPI data, as well as the September FOMC meeting. It is advised to take a balanced approach in sectors where there is an earnings and holdings "configuration gap": 1) Short-term valuations in the AI sector may be under pressure, so attention should first be on segments such as communication equipment where the alignment of stock prices and earnings expectations is relatively reasonable; then, consider areas such as AI power, semiconductor materials, and semiconductor equipment, which show improved prosperity; 2) In non-tech fields, look for categories in shipping, automation/construction machinery, certain chemicals, and agriculture that have seen marginal improvements but possess lower volatility; the mid-term logic for resource products like copper and aluminum, as well as innovative drugs, remains unchanged, but they may be suppressed in the short term by expectations of tightening overseas liquidity, awaiting a "buying zone" after adjustments; 3) Dividends remain the foundational asset. The Pacific Securities: The current A-share market is in a phase of simultaneous external disturbances and internal support Rising U.S. Treasury yields and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve present the greatest external uncertainties; however, domestic policies (systemic reforms in real estate and the "14th Five-Year Plan" for industries) continue to send positive signals. The market will primarily experience a period of consolidation and fluctuation in the short term, with a continued focus on core hard technology assets that resonate with earnings and industrial trends, particularly in PCB, CPO, liquid cooling, semiconductors, and other AI infrastructure and self-controllable directions; at the same time, there is optimism for the non-ferrous precious metals sector driven by a weak dollar and a recovery in commodities, as well as innovative drugs and AI pharmaceuticals that are continuously confirming their prosperity. Minsheng Securities: The market may enter a chaotic state in the next phase The hawkish statements from Waller may temporarily hinder the previous phase of easing trades. However, it should be noted that the endogenous forces behind rising interest rates remain relatively weak. This round of tightening may only require digesting part of the previous expectations of easing, rather than marking the beginning of a new round of tightening. Currently, the upward slope of the technology industry can no longer be compared to that of March, and under tightening expectations, it is difficult for it to stand alone. In terms of domestic demand, the signal significance of real estate policy is greater, and the short-term trading intensity may not be sufficient. The market may enter a chaotic state in the next phase, mainly adopting a defensive mindset, waiting for the next catalyst. This article is reproduced from "Financial Link," edited by Huang Xiaodong of GMTEight.