Lijia Ge: Expects Hong Kong property prices to rise by over 10% in 2026.

Chen Haichao, head of the Research Department at Ricacorp Properties, stated that after several months of rising, the Hong Kong property market is gradually stabilizing, but it is expected that after consolidating prices and transaction volumes in the third quarter, overall property prices will still rise by over 10% for the year. The latest data released by the Rating and Valuation Department today shows that the private residential sales price index for July 2026 is at 321.5 points, a decrease of 0.46% from June's 323.0 points, ending a strong streak of 13 consecutive months of increases, marking the first decline in 16 months. Compared to the historical high of 398.1 points in September 2021, current property prices have fallen by 19.24%. The decline in property prices in July this year mainly reflects the actual market conditions from late June to early July. At that time, while the U.S. interest rates remained unchanged, the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East drove up oil prices, casting a shadow of interest rate hikes over the market; additionally, Hong Kong stocks briefly fell below the critical level of 23,000 points, coinciding with the World Cup events, leading to a stagnation in market transactions and putting pressure on property prices. Looking ahead to August, Chen Haichao pointed out that during the recent summer travel peak, the market remains sluggish and is expected to slightly pressure property prices in August; it is estimated that a rebound will only begin in September. As a result, the overall property prices in the third quarter may experience a slight drop of 0.15%, ending the previous five consecutive quarters of growth. However, supported by a stable outlook for Hong Kong's economy and a rebound in the stock market, the fourth quarter is expected to see a recovery, and along with the increase during the first half of the year, overall property prices for the year are still optimistically projected to rise by 12%. Regarding rental trends, the latest figures from the Rating and Valuation Department indicate that the rental index for July 2026 increased by 0.78% month-on-month, reaching 207.4 points, marking the second-largest month-on-month increase in nearly 11 months. Rent has risen for nine consecutive months, with a cumulative increase of 3.75%. Furthermore, since December 2024, rent has remained flat or increased for 20 consecutive months, accumulating a total increase of up to 8.08%. Chen Haichao anticipates that during the peak summer season, the demand for rentals will be robust, supported collectively by new residents and overseas students, as well as local demand; rent in August and September may each rise by nearly 1% month-on-month, driving rental prices up nearly 3% in the third quarter, challenging the largest increase in nine quarters since the third quarter of 2024.