"Billionaire short seller" Berra issues another AI crash warning: Nebius is a "microcosm of the peak of prosperity"! Doubling down on shorting Micron, Oracle, and semiconductor ETFs.

Michael Burry, known as the "Big Short" for predicting the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, has once again issued a sharp warning regarding the AI frenzy. On August 12, Burry disclosed his latest portfolio adjustments on the Substack platform, increasing his short positions against Nebius (NBIS.US) after its stock price soared 34% following the earnings report, stating that this AI cloud service provider is a "reflection of the peak of prosperity." At the same time, he expanded his bearish bets against Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US), Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US), and the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX). Burrys criticism of Nebius was particularly pointed, asserting that this AI cloud infrastructure provider epitomizes "the very nature of the peak of prosperity." He described the current pricing structure of the AI infrastructure market as "backwardation"where the price of short-term computing power is double that of long-term contracts, revealing the harsh reality that the value of GPUs is depreciating rapidly. Increasing his short position: doubling down as the stock jumps 34% The most striking move in this operation was the increase in his short position against Nebius. This AI cloud service provider, spun off from the Russian internet giant Yandex and based in Amsterdam, reported its Q2 2026 earnings on August 12. Benefiting from a surge in demand for AI infrastructure, the company saw its revenue increase by 454% year-on-year to $582.3 million, exceeding market expectations. Following the earnings report, Nebius's stock price skyrocketed by 34% in a single day. However, this impressive performance did not sway Burry's bearish outlook. On the same day, he announced on Substack that he had added to his short position in Nebius at a price of $247. Burry's disclosed short operations cover both individual stocks and industry indices. Nebius: Increasing short position at a price of $247 per share; Micron Technology, Inc.: Increasing short position at a price of $92.40 per share; Oracle Corporation: Expanding short exposure at a price of $152 per share; iShares Semiconductor ETF: Adding put options expiring in March 2027, with strike prices concentrated in the $400 range. Previously, on August 6, Burry had initially disclosed his short positions on Nebius and Oracle Corporation, with Nebius's short sale price around $212 and Oracle Corporation at approximately $145. The dual increases in just a week demonstrate Burry's firm bearish stance on the valuation bubble in the AI infrastructure sector. As of August 13, Nebius's short position represented a staggering 28.8% of its circulating shares, making it one of the most heavily shorted AI infrastructure stocks in the market. The stock had at one point risen over 209% within the year. Bullish positions: A "safe haven" in Latin American e-commerce and animal health While heavily shorting AI, Burry simultaneously increased two bullish positions: MercadoLibre (MELI.US): Adding at a price of $1,850 per share, stating, No further explanation needed, very optimistic; Zoetis (ZTS.US): Increasing at a price of $73.60 per share, with a similarly concise and firm assessment. These two trades reveal Burry's investment logicunder the expectation of a possible burst in the AI bubble, reallocating funds to "safe haven" assets with solid fundamentals that are not affected by the AI capital expenditure cycle. MercadoLibre, a leading player in Latin American e-commerce and fintech, and Zoetis, a global leader in animal health, both exhibit stable cash flows and clear growth prospects. The warning of Nebius's "backwardation": short-term computing power priced at double, GPUs are depreciating Burry's bearish logic on Nebius is grounded in a deep analysis of the contents of its earnings call, questioning the sustainability of its business model and economic substance. Firstly, Burry pointed out the "backwardation" structure in AI computing power pricing. Nebius's August 12 earnings report revealed that its AI computing contract pricing structure exhibited extreme "short-term premium" features: for short-term contracts (less than one year): $40 million to $50 million per megawatt, sometimes even higher; for medium-term contracts (1-3 years): $20 million to $25 million per megawatt. The short-term price is almost double that of the medium-term. Burry sharply questioned this: "Why pay double for urgency and convenience? This is extreme urgency." In commodity markets, this phenomenon of "current prices being much higher than forward prices" is referred to as backwardation, which typically indicates that the market expects the value of that commodity to decline rapidly. Burry applied this logic to the AI computing power market, stating: Electricity itself does not depreciate. Therefore, either the GPUs are depreciating, or the customers are depreciating, or more likely, both are depreciating. Secondly, Burry further criticized Nebius for extending the depreciation period of its servers from four years to five years. He pointed out that Nebius's contract pricing implies that its computing power assets approximately lose 50% of their value every year, yet it uses extended depreciation periods in its financial statements to "slowly spread costs, creating the illusion of instant profit inflation." He suggested that this practice may be disguising earnings, as the actual update rate of AI infrastructure hardware is far quicker than its recorded depreciation speed. Additionally, Burry once again issued warnings regarding the enormous off-balance-sheet liabilities within the industry. In a post on Substack a week prior, he wrote: The fish are already growing fat on off-balance-sheet debt, backup commitments, leases, and purchase commitments that have not yet started. They have become very overweight, very large, and easy to target. Concerns about Oracle Corporation: A debt-driven gamble on AI infrastructure Burry's bearish logic on Oracle Corporation is consistent with his criticisms of Nebius. He previously warned that due to underestimating GPU depreciation, Oracle Corporation's earnings could be overestimated by 26% to 27% by 2028. At the time of increasing his short position on Oracle Corporation, the company was caught in a dual spiral of "layoffs and debt" due to its aggressive AI infrastructure investment strategyhaving laid off approximately 21,000 employees while debt levels surged to $129.5 billion in fiscal year 2026. Oracle Corporation's predicament precisely confirms Burry's core concern: as the rate of hardware depreciation outpaces the rate acknowledged by the company, the gap between reported earnings and economic reality will widen sharply. A deeper warning: NVIDIA Corporation's "500 billion financing loop" Burrys short positioning is not an isolated action. He has previously issued a stern warning about the $500 billion AI infrastructure financing platform launched by NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) in conjunction with six major Wall Street financial institutions. Burry termed this model a "Wall Street stunt," arguing that it essentially funds the procurement of NVIDIA Corporation GPUs using private credit, asset-backed debt, and NVIDIA Corporation's own capital, creating a closed loop of "money moving from the left pocket to the right pocket." He warned that this leverage-based financing system built on GPU demand is reminiscent of the risk patterns leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. He wrote on Substack: New boss, just like the old boss.