Iran's blockade seems like an empty threat? Gulf oil-producing countries secretly increase shipments through the Strait of Hormuz by fifty percent.

Despite the continuing tension between the US and Iran, with more and more Persian Gulf oil-producing countries finding alternative ways to cross the Strait of Hormuz, the oil transport volume of non-Iranian tankers in the strait has increased by about 50% so far this month. According to data from Vortexa, in the first 10 days of June, at least 1.8 million barrels of oil were being exported daily from the Persian Gulf, higher than the 1.2 million barrels per day in May. As more tankers are identified through satellite image analysis, these numbers are expected to be further adjusted. In contrast, due to the US-imposed blockade restricting tanker passage, Iran's transport volume in the channel has dropped significantly. Vortexa's data shows that no Iranian oil has passed through the strait during this period. Since the US and Iran launched strikes at the end of February, the Strait of Hormuz has become a focal point of conflict, with Iran briefly controlling the channel. However, with the increase of so-called "cloak-and-dagger" style transports, Iran's control has begun to wane, but the current transport volume is still much lower than pre-war levels - around 20 million barrels of crude oil and refined oil were passing through the strait daily before the conflict. Xavier Tang, Vortexa's Senior Market Analyst, stated, "Crossing the strait without turning on AIS signals has become the new norm." AIS is a responder used by ships during navigation to transmit location and other identification information. The market is now expecting transport volumes to further increase. When Iran's Persian Gulf Maritime Security announced the closure of the waterway on Thursday, Brent crude oil futures prices hardly fluctuated - a stark contrast to the 13% surge in oil prices when Iran first blocked the Strait of Hormuz at the outbreak of war This change in sentiment may partly reflect what President Trump referred to as a "secret project" - around 100 million barrels of oil have been able to bypass the blockade and be transported out of the Strait of Hormuz since May. If this figure is accurate, it means that around 2.4 million barrels of oil have been successfully exported daily since early May. The successful export of a large amount of Gulf oil, coupled with the sharp reduction in Chinese crude oil imports and the release of emergency reserves, has led to a decrease of nearly one-third in futures prices from the peak of the conflict. Although the US-Iran conflict has escalated, energy facilities in the region have not been affected so far. However, traders will closely monitor whether tankers can continue to safely transport oil under the backdrop of Iran's latest threat to close the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the US has increased its attacks on ships it claims are attempting to enter Iranian ports, further restricting Iran's oil transport. As of this week, US Central Command stated that they had destroyed two ships attempting to break the blockade line since mid-April in the Gulf of Oman, and another ship's engine room caught fire on Thursday.