Top ten giants holding up half the sky in US stocks? Morgan Stanley's chief strategist: Don't guess the stock market crash, now it's popular to say "blow the bubble in turn"

Currently, the total market value of the top ten weighted stocks in the US stock market accounts for about 45% of the total market size. Such extreme market concentration completely breaks the traditional market trends, making it difficult for investors to judge whether this is a new normal in the capital market or a huge bubble on the verge of bursting. In response to this, Victor Schwartz, global strategy director of Morgan Stanley, gave a completely different assessment - neither of the above. He bluntly stated, "We are now in a market environment where bubbles are alternately switching." Schwartz, in an interview, stated that the extreme concentration of individual stocks is not unique to the US stock market, but rather a common feature of major stock markets worldwide. He said, "Whether it's the US stock market represented by the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, or markets in Korea, Asia-Pacific, or any other market, after removing five or six leading stocks, the vast majority of other targets have no market value." When asked if Warren Buffett's traditional investment logic still applies, Schwartz's answer was straightforward: "The present is no longer the era of investment that Buffett is in." The strategist pointed out two fundamental changes that make today's market different from any period in the past two hundred years. Firstly, the unprecedented scale of global capital investment in the past twenty years means, "For the first time in human history, there is an oversupply of capital, rather than a scarcity of capital." He believes that the excess of capital has directly rendered traditional valuation systems ineffective. The core logic is that any asset with an oversupply of capital is difficult to price according to traditional standards. Secondly, the information age is fundamentally different from past technological revolutions. The artificial intelligence (AI) industry chain covers a wide range, spanning multiple tracks such as software, chips, Siasun Robot & Automation, biotechnology, and more. The characteristic of full coverage of technology sectors makes it difficult for the market to form a bubble in a single domain. Schwartz explained, "The software sector had a bubble before, but the heat has already dissipated; now the chip sector's bubble is evident, the subsequent market trend will gradually cool, and then the market hotspot will switch to various application tracks." He warned that in such a market environment, the pattern of differentiated returns and the monopolization of profits by industry leaders will persist in the long term, "Wealth and earnings will continue to be concentrated in the top targets, with small and medium-sized targets not receiving any dividends." Schwartz also overturned the traditional approach of dividing investment sectors by region, stating that the boundary between emerging markets and developed markets has essentially disappeared. "US stocks, Europe, Asia-Pacific markets do not have substantial differences, the logic of global market trends tends towards emerging markets," he added. The global trade dividends and strong cyclicality that supported emerging market trends in the past have weakened, and investors' focus should shift from geography to industry sectors. In response to the current market situation, Schwartz recommends adopting a thematic investment strategy: locking in long-term tracks with upward potential for the next few years in advance, while maintaining flexible adjustments, timely switching layouts when one thematic trend comes to an end and a new theme emerges. He predicts that Siasun Robot & Automation, automation, quantum computing, and biotechnology will be the core tracks brewing the next round of large-scale bubble markets and concluded, "The massive bubble market in these areas is yet to come."