Previous day bank officials intervention: Tokyo may continue to take action to protect the exchange rate, but unable to change the overall trend of the weakening yen.
Former central bank official Jun Takeuchi said Japan likely intervened during the Golden Week holiday.
Former central bank official Atsushi Takeuchi, who participated in market intervention actions in Tokyo ten years ago, said that Japan is likely to have intervened during the Golden Week holiday period; if the yen falls below the psychological key level of 160 again, Japan will intervene in the market again.
He stated that although the Ministry of Finance does not intend to defend any specific "bottom line," intervention is likely to prevent a sharp sell-off of the yen. Once the exchange rate falls below the 160 level, this selling momentum may intensify further.
Takeuchi stated in an interview, "The 160 level has become a psychologically important level for traders to focus on. The Ministry of Finance must be consistent in words and actions, intervening to avoid giving the impression that Tokyo would tolerate a yen decline."
He pointed out that authorities may also be concerned about simultaneous selling of Japanese government bonds and the yen, which may be early signs of the so-called "sell-off of Japan."
Takeuchi added, "In the past, during times of crisis, the yen was viewed as a safe-haven currency and was bought, but the situation is no longer the same." "If I were a bond trader, considering Japan's loose fiscal policy, I would not buy Japanese government bonds either."
Sources told the media that authorities conducted intervention last Thursday, with currency market data showing they sold about $35 billion to support the yen. Since then, there have been three sharp rises in the yen during the Golden Week holiday period, with the yen briefly jumping to a high of 155.00 on Wednesday. On Thursday, the yen hovered around 156.30 against the dollar.
Regarding the sharp rise in the yen during the holiday period, Takeuchi said, "This price movement does indeed look like intervention." He added that authorities may continue to intervene in the market to curb the yen's sharp decline.
He further stated, "Japanese authorities understand that they are powerless to reverse the yen's weakening trend. Their goal is to prevent the yen from falling, hoping that external factors will turn in their favor."
The Ministry of Finance, responsible for overseeing Japan's monetary policy, has not confirmed whether or not they have intervened in the market.
Takeuchi had participated in several interventions to sell the yen from 2010 to 2012 and is currently the director of the Ricoh Institute of Sustainability and Business.
In addition to buying interventions for the yen, Japan's top foreign exchange official Atsushi Mimura even suggested the possibility of intervening in the oil futures market, believing that speculative volatility there could exacerbate the yen's fluctuations.
However, Takeuchi denied this idea, deeming it highly unlikely. He said that any Japanese intervention in oil futures would be far beyond Tokyo's control and would face logistical difficulties in implementation.
"Considering the operational risks, I don't think Japan would intervene in the oil futures market. But if you are the top foreign exchange official, you need to show that you have multiple options at your disposal."
Historically, Japan has focused on preventing a sharp appreciation of the yen to avoid harming its export-dependent economy. However, since 2022, the focus has shifted towards preventing the yen from depreciating excessively, as this would increase inflation and weaken consumer purchasing power.
In Japan, the Ministry of Finance has jurisdiction over monetary policy and decides on the timing of interventions, with the Bank of Japan acting as its agent to execute specific trading operations.
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