Coin circle's "most dangerous track" under attack! Market prediction for cross-border encirclement, new players enter the world of cryptocurrency perpetual futures trading.

In the United States, a "land grab movement" around perpetual futures is unfolding. Perpetual futures is one of the largest and riskiest types of products in the cryptocurrency trading field and according to reports, prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket also want to get a slice of the action. Perpetual futures, more commonly known as "perps" among users, are futures contracts without expiration dates. Since Trump returned to power, this type of contract has experienced explosive growth. Prior to this, perpetual futures contracts providing up to 100x leverage were almost nonexistent in the United States, which is also an important reason why offshore exchanges like Binance and the now-defunct FTX were able to dominate the market. According to CoinGecko data, perpetual futures trading volume currently accounts for over 70% of the total trading volume on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges. Data from CryptoQuant shows that by 2025, the nominal trading volume of perpetual futures will rise to $61.7 trillion, a 29% increase from 2024. In comparison, the nominal trading volume of spot cryptocurrency trading in 2025 is $18.6 trillion, a 9% increase year-on-year. The combination of prediction markets and leveraged trading could reshape the way American users trade real-world events. At the same time, this will also pit prediction markets directly against platforms like Robinhood (HOOD.US) and Coinbase (COIN.US), raising questions: will combining prediction markets with leverage products exacerbate market volatility and make the connection between cryptocurrencies and traditional finance even closer? However, for existing cryptocurrency platforms, analysts generally downplay the potential challenges brought by prediction markets. Natural Business Extension Clear Street analyst Owen Lau said, "I don't see this as an imminent threat. For existing users of Polymarket and Kalshi, this is a natural product extension ... It's hard to ask users of Coinbase, Binance, or Robinhood to abandon their original platforms and switch to them." Dan Dolev from Mizuho Securities believes that the move by prediction markets is more about risk defense rather than proactive aggression. He mentioned, "Ultimately ... Robinhood will want to do this themselves. So this is more like a defensive move rather than an offensive move." Robinhood launched a prediction market hub last year through a partnership with Kalshi, and the company claimed that this product line became its fastest-growing revenue stream in history, with over 1 million customers trading 11 billion contracts in 2025. Coinbase also established a partnership with Kalshi in January of this year. Dolev said that the overlap between the user bases of prediction markets and cryptocurrency markets is "extremely high," so Robinhood's entry into this field is a "smart move." Crypto.com, Coinbase, and Robinhood are all members of the newly formed Prediction Market Association. He also cautioned, "Prediction market providers may ultimately face the risk of disruption." The Acceleration of Localizing Perpetual Futures in the United States Lau said that if perpetual futures trading becomes popular in the United States, it may exacerbate the volatility of certain assets. "Due to the high-risk nature of leverage and contracts, perpetual futures contracts have never been seen in the United States before," he explained. He added that perpetual futures outside the United States use a mechanism called "automatic deleveraging system", where exchanges automatically close traders' positions in the event of extreme price fluctuations, causing widespread liquidations and leading to a significant drop in cryptocurrency prices within a single day. This may also be one of the reasons why U.S. regulatory agencies have been reluctant to allow such contracts to be traded domestically. The success of these expansion plans will largely depend on the design of the product structure including contract pricing, settlement, margin mechanisms, and incentives for traders. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) earlier this year indicated that it is pushing for the localization of "true perpetual derivatives" in the United States. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated in a speech at the time, "The previous administration failed to create conditions for the localization of such markets. Under my leadership, the CFTC will use all tools to promote the deployment of perpetual contracts and other new derivatives in the United States, enabling them to thrive in centralized and decentralized markets, while ensuring appropriate security measures." At the same time, prediction markets are also facing stricter regulatory scrutiny. Some incidents have shown that some bettors are suspected of using insider information or manipulating underlying data (e.g. betting on undisclosed events, or being accused of tampering with real-world inputs such as weather sensors) to gain excess profits. The introduction of cryptocurrencies will undoubtedly attract more regulatory attention, potentially hindering their development before these companies can expand their business. However, if this deployment can be successfully implemented, the biggest mystery in the industry is whether these contracts popular in the cryptocurrency field will expand to other asset classes. Lau said that if the CFTC and U.S. traders can continue to avoid using automatic deleveraging mechanisms in perpetual futures trading, it would be a logical next step. He said, "Although perpetual futures originated in the cryptocurrency field, I wouldn't be surprised if they were launched on traditional assets like S&P 500, energy, coffee, or stocks of companies like Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) after their launch on cryptocurrency assets. This would be an even more interesting phenomenon."