Don't expect the strait to be reopened in the short term! Executives of oilfield service giants predict the end of the war in June, industry survey: reopening in August is already optimistic.

One of the three largest oilfield service companies in the world, Baker Hughes (BKR.US), Chief Financial Officer Ahmed Moghar, said last Friday that the company assumes in its financial forecasts that the US-Iran war will last until at least the end of June and the Strait of Hormuz may not fully reopen for navigation until later in the year. He said during the company's first-quarter earnings conference call, "There is still great uncertainty about how long the conflict will ultimately last and to what extent it will develop." The assumption that the Strait of Hormuz may not reopen for several months is widely accepted in the energy industry. The Dallas Federal Reserve Bank surveyed nearly a hundred oil and natural gas industry executives this week, with results showing that nearly 80% of respondents believe that the strait will not reopen until August or later. Baker Hughes CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said during the same conference call, "Political risk has become a structural reality in the oil and natural gas market for GEO Group Inc, which could lead to continued risk premiums in oil and liquefied natural gas prices. As the conflict enters its eighth week, the volume of oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains extremely lowboth the US and Iran have detained commercial ships, attempting to impose blockades of mutual antagonism in the strait and the surrounding areas. Due to the strait not reopening, crude oil futures surged this week, but saw mixed results on Friday: US and Iranian officials traveled to Pakistan for more talks (previously scheduled for earlier this week, but postponed), leading to price fluctuations. It was reported that US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will travel to Islamabad to try to restart negotiations with Iran, while Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif will submit a new written response to the US peace agreement proposal during his visit to Pakistan. Thierry Wizman, Global Foreign Exchange and Interest Rate Strategist at Macquarie, wrote, "Recent developments show that traders are increasingly accepting that the military phase of the US-Iran conflict is coming to an end or has ended, with the economic war gradually solidifying." In a report, analyst Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank added, "Even if the strait fully reopens, it may take several months for transport volumes to return to normal, exacerbating supply shortagesespecially in diesel and aviation fuel, and forcing countries and companies to restrain demand." In terms of specific prices, as of the time of writing, New York Mercantile Exchange June crude oil futures rose 1.12% to $95.46 per barrel; meanwhile, Brent crude oil futures for the same period rose 1.33% to $100.45 per barrel; May natural gas futures rose 0.41% to $2.694 per million British Thermal Units. Looking back at the entire week before, New York crude oil and Brent crude oil rose by 14.3% and 16.5% respectively, while New York natural gas fell by 5.6%. Energy stocks represented by the Dow Jones Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE.US) rose by 3.3% last week.