Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecast urgently: Middle East oil production decreases by 1.45 million barrels per day, global crude oil inventories are being depleted at a speed that is "historically rare".

Due to the reduction in Middle Eastern oil production, Goldman Sachs has raised its fourth-quarter oil price forecast, with the target price for Brent crude raised to $90 per barrel and WTI crude raised to $83 per barrel. Led by analyst Daan Struyven, the Goldman Sachs analyst team stated in a report released on April 26th that "due to potential upward pressure on oil prices, unusually high refined oil prices, risks of oil supply shortages, and the unprecedented scale of this shock, the overall economy faces risks far beyond our baseline scenario for crude oil." Goldman Sachs' latest forecast predicts that crude oil exports from the Gulf region through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by the end of June, slightly later than previously predicted for mid-May, and the pace of recovery of crude oil production in the Gulf region will slow down. According to Goldman Sachs' calculations, daily production of Middle Eastern oil has sharply reduced by 14.5 million barrels, leading to a historical unprecedented consumption rate of global crude oil inventories of 11 to 12 million barrels per day in April. The institution predicts that the global oil market will shift from a daily supply surplus of 1.8 million barrels in 2025 to a supply deficit of 0.96 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026. Due to the significant increase in refined oil prices, global crude oil demand in the second quarter of this year is expected to decrease by 1.7 million barrels per day, with a year-on-year average decrease of 100,000 barrels per day in crude oil demand for the whole of 2026. The analysts added, "The sharp depletion of crude oil inventories is difficult to sustain in the long term, and if the supply side shock continues to escalate, the market may face a larger contraction in demand."