On-site research overturns mainstream judgment: Analysts from the Citrini faction personally went to Oman, claiming that the Strait of Hormuz is not completely closed.

When oil traders from around the world carefully analyze satellite images and official statements to look for clues about the fate of the Strait of Hormuz, a research company seems to have taken a different approach: the company has stated that it has directly deployed an analyst to the conflict area. Citrini Research has stated that it has sent an analyst to the Musandam Peninsula in Oman, who traveled there by boat to personally observe shipping activities during the escalating tensions between Iran and the United States. The analyst claimed findings that challenge the mainstream belief dominating the global market - that this important oil artery has actually been closed. However, the company did not disclose the analyst's name (due to the sensitivity of the event), and the analyst found that ships were still transiting through the strait, with traffic volumes increasing in recent days to about 15 ships per day, according to a report published by the company on Substack. Although significantly lower than normal levels, this traffic flow indicates that the disruption is partial and evolving gradually rather than completely interrupted. Earlier this year, the company released a market-moving bearish AI report. The Citrini post stated: "Four or five oil tankers pass through each day, with no signals on AIS. They say that the actual number of tankers is higher than what the data shows, and in the past few days, the number of tankers passing through the Geshm Strait has been increasing rapidly." AIS (Automatic Identification System) is a vessel tracking system used to broadcast a ship's position, speed, identity, and course. Citrini pointed out that actual freight volume is higher than reported data because many vessels will turn off their transponders, making them undetectable in official tracking systems. According to posts on Substack, interviews with fishermen, smugglers, and local officials indicated that Iran is allowing selective passages. Tankers must obtain approval before passing through waters near Iranian territorial sea, which Citrini describes in its post as more of a "functional checkpoint" rather than a blockade. The company stated: "This should help people understand that our view of this conflict is nuanced - it cannot simply be reduced to 'oil prices plummeting' or 'oil prices skyrocketing.'" It is certain that these findings are based on field visits and anecdotes that are difficult to independently verify, especially in a region with limited transparency. The company stated that it expects market turmoil to persist for a longer period, leading to a lasting risk premium in the oil market. Based on this, the company is more inclined to hold longer-dated oil contracts, such as WTI crude oil futures contracts expiring in December 2026, rather than near-month contracts. Citrini stated: "We believe that this disruption will last longer, the new norm will mean a permanent risk premium, but we may see 50% of pre-conflict traffic levels in the next 4-6 weeks."