Oil prices soared 68%, breaking the "restraint" spell, and American shale oil drilling companies finally initiated a production increase pattern.

According to several analysts, due to the US attack on Iran about five weeks ago, the price of crude oil has surged by 68%. US shale oil drillers are expected to overcome their long-standing cautious attitude and increase oil production. Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute (API), recently said in an interview, "In the coming months, high oil prices will undoubtedly drive US production growth." Enervus forecasts that total US oil supply this year will increase by 240,000 barrels per day, reaching a record 13.9 million barrels per day, reversing the previous prediction of a decrease of 100,000 barrels per day due to concerns about market oversupply. The initial increase will come from completed but not yet fracked drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs). Rystad analysts currently predict that production in the lower 48 states of the US will increase by 191,000 barrels per day, reversing the previous prediction of a decrease of 80,000 barrels per day. Citigroup says that some large shale oil companies will deploy more drilling rigs in the second half of this year, meaning that by 2027, major operators will increase production by over 100,000 barrels per day. The bank predicts that, combined with further expansion of non-publicly traded drillers, US shale oil production could increase by 815,000 barrels per day by 2028. TD Cowen analyst Jason Gabelman states that the probability of Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM.US) and Chevron Corporation (CVX.US) increasing shale oil production is "higher than their peers". Exxon Mobil Corporation has previously outlined an aggressive production growth plan until 2030, while Chevron Corporation, after years of growth, has seen production enter a "plateau phase". Harold Hamm, CEO of Continental Resources, recently became the first prominent shale oil company executive to publicly commit to increasing production. On Monday, crude oil futures experienced a slight increase. Prior to this, Trump stated that Iran must agree to open the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday night, otherwise he would threaten to attack Iran's power plants and other civilian infrastructure. Robert Yawger of Mizuho stated in a report, "The market is highly sensitive to news, and currently facing a dilemma: on one hand, there are reports of an imminent ceasefire, on the other hand, President Trump is threatening to attack Iran's infrastructure if they do not open the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday." The near-month crude oil May futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) rose by 0.8%, closing at $112.41 per barrel, the highest settlement price since June 16, 2022; the near-month Brent crude oil June futures contract rose by 0.7%, to $109.77 per barrel; however, the Nymex near-month natural gas May futures contract fell by 0.4%, to $2.811 per million British thermal units, the second lowest settlement price of the year. Related ETFs include the United States Oil ETF (USO.US) and the United States Brent Oil Fund, LP (BNO.US).