Trump's issuing of a "final ultimatum" has raised concerns about the escalation of the Iran conflict, causing international oil prices to rise in response.

date
06:47 23/03/2026
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GMT Eight
Trump's ultimatum on the Strait of Hormuz could lead to an escalation of war and an increase in oil prices.
In the United States, President Trump issued a final ultimatum to Iran, demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. After Tehran threatened retaliation, oil prices rose. On Monday, Brent crude oil prices rose to around $113 per barrel, while WTI crude oil prices briefly surpassed $100 per barrel. Trump stated that Iran must "fully open" the waterway within 48 hours, or its power plants will be bombed. In response, Tehran warned that if Iran's fuel and energy facilities are attacked, Iran will strike "all energy, information technology, and seawater desalination infrastructure belonging to the US and Israeli regimes in the region." As of the time of writing, May Brent crude oil futures prices rose by 0.6% to $112.87 per barrel. May WTI crude oil futures prices rose by 0.6% to $98.77 per barrel. Since the end of February, when the US and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, global benchmark Brent crude oil prices have surged by over 50%. There is no sign of easing in the conflict, and the increase in major petroleum product markets has even exceeded that of crude oil. This could trigger a global inflation wave and bring turmoil to financial markets like commodities, stocks, and bonds. After weeks of conflict engulfing this energy-rich region and affecting more than a dozen countries, the near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz - a crucial passage connecting the Persian Gulf with global markets - has become a key flashpoint of the conflict. Iranian officials are increasingly unwilling to discuss the reopening of this crucial transportation route as they are fully focused on coping with the crisis. Trump's final ultimatum was issued at 7:44 p.m. Eastern Time on Saturday (7:44 a.m. Sunday Beijing Time). Oil market researcher and founder of Commodity Context Corp., Rory Johnston, stated: "Now, Trump has set a 48-hour deadline, leaving himself backed into a corner, and Tehran is highly unlikely to agree to such an urgent timetable under threat of attack. Additionally, Iran clearly has the capability and intention to respond to any escalation situation." With maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly completely halted - except for a few transits approved by Tehran - Persian Gulf oil producers have had to interrupt millions of barrels per day of supplies or turn to limited alternative export routes. The International Energy Agency warned that the global oil market is facing its largest disruption ever, and at the same time, the agency has coordinated large-scale releases of emergency reserves by member countries. In addition to information fatigue and unusually severe market fluctuations, one of the increasingly serious challenges faced by investors is the lack of consistent information from Trump on the Iran conflict issue. Just before he issued the two-day ultimatum, the president had suggested he was considering "gradually reducing" US military actions against Iran. Haris Khurshid, Chief Investment Officer of Chicago's Karobaar Capital LP, said: "It feels like we have shifted from reacting to news headlines to waiting for confirmation, so the next real action will need something tangible, not just escalating rhetoric. Prices may await more drastic fluctuations until wider issues in shipping or insurance emerge." To further suppress energy prices, the US allowed the sale of Iranian oil and petrochemical products already loaded on tankers. Additionally, the US Treasury Department issued a general license authorizing the sale of energy goods loaded on tankers since last Friday, valid until April 19, a move similar to earlier measures to relax restrictions on Russian oil being transported at sea. Last Sunday, the US and Israel continued to launch attacks on targets within Iran, including Tehran. Iran, in turn, launched missiles and drones towards Israel and Gulf Arab countries. US Treasury Secretary Bennett stated that the attacks on Iran aimed to destroy defensive fortifications along the Strait of Hormuz. He told the media: "Trump will 'take all necessary measures' to achieve his goals, including destroying Iran's air force and navy and preventing them from having nuclear weapons capability."