Trump's comments ignite expectations! The market is betting that the possibility of a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran in the short term is slightly higher than fifty percent.

With new signs of changes in the situation in the Middle East, the market is predicting a noticeable increase in expectations for a ceasefire in the Iran conflict. The latest data shows that the market has started to bet that there is a slightly higher than 50% chance of reaching a ceasefire agreement in the short term. According to data from the prediction market platform Polymarket, as of the time of writing, the probability of the contract "Ceasefire by April 30" has risen to about 51%, exceeding 50% for the first time in recent times. Previously, this contract had been hovering between 30% and 40% since mid-March. This rapid increase in expectations is mainly driven by the recent remarks of U.S. President Trump. Trump has stated that the U.S. is expected to reach an agreement with Iran "within five days or even faster." This statement briefly boosted market risk appetite, leading to a rise in U.S. stocks, a drop in U.S. bond yields, and a decline in international oil prices. However, market sentiment later fluctuated. Iran denied engaging in any negotiations with the U.S., but Trump countered by saying that the two sides had "talked last night." Amid conflicting reports, the probability of a ceasefire retreated from its intraday high, but still remained above 50%, indicating that the market still has some expectations for a short-term easing of tensions. According to Polymarket's rules, a "ceasefire" must be officially announced by both the U.S. and Iran and mutually agreed upon to stop direct military conflicts. Informal communications, negotiations behind the scenes, or unilateral suspensions of military operations are not considered as reaching a ceasefire agreement. Looking at longer-term expectations, the market is more confident about achieving a ceasefire within the year. Data shows that traders estimate a probability of around 76% of achieving a ceasefire by December 31, 2025; 66% by June 30; 61% by May 31; about 52% by April 30; and only 22% by March 31. Analysts point out that the fluctuations in the current prediction market reflect investors' high sensitivity to the geopolitical outlook. Trump's statements have had a noticeable impact on market expectations in the short term, but the actual progress of the ceasefire process still depends on the negotiation progress between the two sides and the evolution of the conflict.