Hong Kong stock concept tracking | Soaring oil prices highlight the energy substitution effect, the timing of layout in the coal sector has arrived (with concept stocks)

As the conflict between the US and Iran intensifies, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has almost come to a standstill. Since the outbreak of the conflict, Brent crude oil has risen by about 40% and natural gas has risen by about 15%. Goldman Sachs warned that the potential scale of this supply shock may be 17 times that of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. If the bottleneck continues, oil prices may challenge the historical high of $150 per barrel by the end of the month. The recent sharp rise in oil and gas prices has triggered strong expectations in the market for energy substitution effects. On Monday, the Asian benchmark Newcastle coal futures price jumped by about 9.3%, reaching the $150 per ton mark, hitting the highest record since November 2024. Meanwhile, the European market reacted similarly, with Rotterdam coal prices rising by about 13% on March 2 to $119.50 per ton, setting a 52-week high. The sharp rise in oil prices is profoundly reshaping the cost logic and competitive landscape of the global chemical market. Against the background of a significant expansion in the "oil-coal price differential", the prosperity of the coal chemical industry is accelerating. Coal, as a basic energy commodity, can play a certain substituting role in industrial fuels and chemical raw materials. For example, in the case of ethylene/polyethylene, ethylene can be produced through crude oil production, as well as through coal-to-olefin (MTO) production. When crude oil prices rise too quickly, leading to a substantial increase in the cost of ethylene and other products, the economic viability of coal chemical industry is significantly enhanced. When Brent crude oil prices are above $80 per barrel, the economic viability of coal chemicals enters a significantly enhanced profitable zone. At the same time, the rapid rise in international oil prices in the short term has also broken the original price comparison relationship with coal and other energy sources. According to relevant data, in terms of equivalent calorific value, there has been a stable central ratio between oil and coal in the long run, with a central calorific ratio of 3.0-3.4. When price balance is disrupted and the ratio deviates from the center, theoretically coal enters the "undervalued zone," attracting more market demand or capital inflows, leading to an increase in coal price. In recent years, the weight of coal chemicals in the coal demand structure has been increasing. If the conflict continues to escalate, it may significantly boost the marginal demand for coal chemicals: on one hand, Iran is China's largest source of methanol imports, if the Iran methanol exports are blocked due to the US-Iran conflict, domestic methanol prices may rise, stimulating the domestic coal-to-methanol/MTO plant operation, increasing the consumption of raw coal. At the same time, against the background of the upward shift in oil price center, the increase in the cost of oil production routes also enhances the relative yield of coal production routes, thus providing medium-term support for coal prices, especially for chemical-grade coal. Industry insiders have stated that with the clearing of outdated production capacity and the prevention of overinvestment, some coal chemical products have actually moved out of the upward trend. Coupled with the expected price increase brought by the high oil price expectations, coal chemical companies are expected to see a simultaneous recovery in performance and valuation. CICC believes that due to the impact of the Iranian situation, transportation in the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, disturbing the global supply of oil, gas, and chemical products. This may push up oil and gas chemical product prices, stimulate domestic demand for coal chemicals, and raise the cost of gas-to-electricity, thereby stimulating the marginal demand for electricity generation to switch from gas to coal. In the long term, under more complex overseas geopolitical situations, the security of supply of upstream energy sources will become increasingly important, and as an energy ballast stone and important raw material for chemicals, the strategic significance of coal resources to China is increasing, with the valuation of high-quality coal assets having room to rise. Related concept stocks: China Shenhua Energy (01088): As a leading energy company with coal business as its cornerstone, the company actively develops electricity, transportation, and other fields, forming an integrated coal and electricity layout that enhances the stability of performance. In January 2026, the company's commodity coal production was 27.4 million tons, an increase of 10% year-on-year; coal sales were 33.2 million tons, an increase of 9.9% year-on-year. Total power generation was 22.22 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 34.2% year-on-year; total power sales were 20.96 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 34.4% year-on-year. Yankuang Energy Group (01171): Yankuang Energy Group is the coal leader in North China, with coal bases in Shandong, Shaanxi-Mongolia, and Australia, and is the only coal enterprise in China that has substantial overseas resources. Bank of America recently released a research report stating that it has raised Yankuang Energy Group's profit forecasts for this year and next year by 29% and 34% respectively, with its target price raised from HK$11.5 to HK$17, and its rating upgraded from "neutral" to "buy." China Coal Energy (01898): Huatai Securities stated that the company's net profit in the third quarter improved significantly quarter-on-quarter, while year-on-year remained almost unchanged, mainly due to cost reductions in self-produced coal, a rebound in coal sales prices, and the repair of profit margins in coal chemicals.