Melia: Hong Kong property prices continue to rise in the Year of the Horse, expected to increase by about 10% to 15% this year.

Matthew Ma, CEO of Midland Holding (Residential), pointed out that the Year of the Horse has started off well, with good performance in the volume of first-hand transactions at the beginning of the Lunar New Year. According to data from the Residential Property Sales Information Network and market reports from the Midland Property Research Center, there were approximately 175 new property transactions from the first to the tenth day of the Lunar New Year, representing a significant increase of about 27.7% compared to the same period during the Year of the Snake last year, and setting a new high for the same period in the past 5 years since the Year of the Ox in 2021. Ma continued to say that the property market in 2026 has started off strong, with a continuous upward trend in property prices. The latest Midland property price index stands at 138.66 points, marking a weekly increase of 0.37%. Property prices have been rising for 13 consecutive weeks, the longest weekly increase since June 2019. Property prices have risen by 2.93% so far this year, and have increased by 9.8% compared to the low point last year. It is expected that property prices will rise by about 10% to 15% for the whole year. With a strong performance in the stock market, continued economic stabilization, rising rents, and inventory digestion, property prices have regained an upward trend. As market sentiment improves, the property market has shown signs of early spring this year, with purchasing power gradually increasing. In the first two months of this year (up to February 26), the volume of first-hand transactions has exceeded 3,700, an increase of nearly 90% compared to the same period in 2013 after the implementation of regulations for first-hand property sales. Ma pointed out that with the dust settled on the "Case," the impact of stamp duty on luxury homes on the overall property market is limited. In addition, as the Chinese New Year holiday factors gradually fade, it is estimated that multiple new projects will be launched in March, with a predicted increase in the volume of first-hand transactions by about 70% to around 2,400, setting a record for the 14th consecutive month with over a thousand transactions. It is estimated that the volume of first-hand transactions in the first quarter is expected to exceed 6,000 units, reaching a quarterly high not seen since the third quarter of 2016 (about 9 and a half years). As we enter March 2026, it is estimated that in the next 10 months (from March to December), several regions in Hong Kong will see new property supplies debut one after another, with a potential supply of nearly 26,000 units in the first-hand market. One of the new focal areas for development in the northern urban area, which is not only a new driving force for Hong Kong's economic development, but also a focus of the property market. With the new "Case" indicating accelerated development in the northern urban area again, it is estimated that many new projects will be launched in the area this year, including about 4,846 units in the North District and about 2,639 units in Yuen Long. In addition to the northern urban area, another supply focus in the New Territories is Tung Chung, with an estimated potential supply of about 2,000 units to be launched this year. In Kowloon, the supply is concentrated in the Kai Tak area, with an estimated about 3,884 units in this new development area; while in To Kwa Wan and Hung Hom, there are about 3,743 units, in Tseung Kwan O area there are about 2,550 units. As for the Hong Kong Island areas of Wong Chuk Hang and Ap Lei Chau, there is a potential supply of about 1,197 new units, providing a variety of choices for the market. However, whether these projects will be launched this year depends on the sales strategies of the developers, and the progress of projects awaiting approval will also play a role, with the number of actual units launched each year significantly fewer than expected. Looking ahead to 2026, Ma expects the property market sentiment to continue to improve, with developers actively launching new projects and continually reducing inventory. With multiple favorable factors supporting the market, it is expected that the volume of first-hand transactions this year may reach around 22,000 units, setting a new record high since the implementation of regulations for first-hand residential property sales in 2013.