Geopolitical risks trigger a global strategic mineral "hoarding race", with the US, Europe, and Asia competing to build a "metal firewall".

A new competition to secure key mineral resources is unfolding on the global economic stage. It has been learned that governments around the world are taking action to secure access to metal minerals that are increasingly seen as crucial for national security and industrial policy. From the proposed $12 billion "Strategic Stockpile Project" in the United States to expanding buffer stocks in Asia and the EU, countries are actively taking steps to ensure access to these minerals. "In the field of metals and minerals, the latest round of hoarding is most evident," said Chatham Institute senior researcher Patrick Schroders global. He pointed out that governments are seeking to reduce dependence on concentrated supply chains and export controls. In the United States, officials recently announced a strategic mineral reserve plan called the "Strategic Stockpile Project," with a budget of around $12 billion. The plan aims to enhance the resilience of the US industrial supply chain by establishing reserves of rare earths and other metals critical for electrification, national defense, and advanced manufacturing. The "Strategic Stockpile Project" complements other initiatives, such as the "Resource Geopolitics Participation Forum" partnership aimed at coordinating key mineral policy pricing and projects, as well as the "Silica Plan" focused on protecting AI-related supply chains. Australia announced in January plans for an $800 million strategic critical mineral reserve to establish a nationally supported hoarding strategy prioritizing antimony, gallium, and rare earth elements. The EU is also advancing its joint reserve plan for key raw materials under the "RESourceEU" strategy. Earlier this month, it was reported that Italy, France, and Germany are expected to lead this effort. Just last weekend, India and Brazil agreed to deepen cooperation in critical mineral and rare earth fields, as New Delhi aims to diversify its supply sources. The agreement aims to strengthen bilateral trade and establish more resilient supply chains for key materials required for clean energy, technology, and defense industries. Earlier this year, South Korea launched a comprehensive critical mineral strategy supported by approximately $172 million in government funding. According to the strategy, the Korean government plans to expand reserves and infrastructure. "We are indeed seeing many countries shifting towards a more resource nationalist mindset," Schroders global said. "Currently, this is a dangerous downhill trend, as strategic hoarding may turn into pure speculation when measures become mandatory, lack transparency, and are weaponized." This strategic shift marks what analysts have called a structural change in commodity policies. "The metal supply chain is fragile," said Eva Manthei of the Netherlands International Group, citing years of underinvestment, lengthy permit approval processes, and high geographic concentration. She noted that in past cycles, high prices often stimulated faster mineral supply growth, reducing the need for strategic stockpiles. "Today, even with high prices, new supplies are slow and uncertain, so stocks themselves are becoming part of the supply strategy," Manthei added, noting that this hoarding behavior clearly has a "nationalistic tone." Industry observers note that historically, inventories were primarily used to address temporary interruptions or price spikes. Schroders global said that today's measures are more clearly driven by the need to buffer geopolitical factors, reflecting a broader shift where resource security is being defined as an industrial and national security issue, rather than just crisis management. "This cycle of commodity inventory construction is different from before," analyst Anushri Gannerivala said. "Previous commodity cycles were mainly driven by traditional supply-demand imbalances or weather shocks. The difference is that policy and geopolitical risks are now directly impacting market outcomes." Goldman Sachs described recent commodity demand for gold and industrial metals as "insurance-type demand" in February. Analysts expect government hoarding behavior to accelerate, especially for metals related to energy transition and defense. "We are still in the early stages," Scott Gray said. "Governments are now viewing supply chains as critical national infrastructure, not just commercial flows."