Open source Securities: Cost support superimposed on stable demand growth. Prices of lysine and Vitamin E rebound from the bottom.

Open Source Securities released a research report, stating that according to the data from Baichuan Yingfu, since January 2026, factories have taken a strong stance on raising prices for downstream Spring Festival stocking, with the price of lysine reaching 18.50 yuan/kg. During this period, mainstream domestic factories have stopped accepting orders at a price of 18.0 yuan/ton/kg for some customers. In terms of vitamins, due to factors such as continuous price support for some major varieties in Q4 2025, low inventory levels of channel distributors, downstream stocking, and increased export demand, some product prices have rebounded from their lower levels. On February 5th, Zhejiang Nhu raised the export price of feed-grade VE 50% by 15%, followed by Beisha Pharmaceuticals raising the export price of VE to 7.5 USD/kg, and mainstream manufacturers have a positive attitude towards holding up prices in the future. The main points of Open Source Securities are as follows: Lysine: Cost support + factory maintenance + stocking demand, lysine prices have rebounded from their low point According to Baichuan Yingfu data, since January 2026, factories have taken a strong stance on raising prices for downstream Spring Festival stocking, with prices reaching 18.50 yuan/kg. According to information from the feed industry website, on January 8, 2026, Ningxia Ziguang raised lysine prices by 7%, Bluestar Adisseo raised prices for liquid lysine by 10% on January 30, and starting from February 3, Zhejiang Nhu raised solid lysine export prices by 8%. Prices: According to data from Wind and Boya Hexun, the average market prices for solid and liquid lysine in 2025 were 21.68 and 16.49 yuan/kg, with year-on-year changes of +1.6% and +3.0% respectively. Since Q3 2025, lysine prices have been fluctuating downward. On February 9, the market prices for solid and liquid lysine were 18.50 and 14.30 yuan/kg, with year-on-year changes of -15.5% and -7.7% respectively, placing them at historical percentiles of 1.8% and 1.1% (since August 14, 2008). Imports and exports: In 2025, China's lysine exports and imports were 319,000 and 182,000 tons respectively, with year-on-year changes of +22.7% and +13.8%. The net export volume was 137,000 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons year-on-year. The average export and import prices were 2.39 and 2.36 USD/kg, with year-on-year changes of +3.3% and +0.4%. Supply side: Globally, lysine production capacity is 2.6 million tons, with China's capacity accounting for 1.07 million tons (41%). The top three companies in the world (Evonik, Bluestar Adisseo, Zhejiang Nhu) account for 74% of the capacity, showing a high industry concentration. Zhejiang Nhu's 180,000 tons/year (pure) liquid lysine project ran steadily after maintenance in September 2025, and the 70,000 tons/year expansion project for solid lysine has been completed and is in the testing phase, bringing the company's total lysine production capacity to 550,000 tons. Bluestar Adisseo owns 320,000 tons of lysine overseas, 350,000 tons of liquid lysine in Nanjing, and plans to build a 150,000 ton solid lysine plant in Quanzhou, expected to start production in 2027, bringing the company's total lysine production capacity to 820,000 tons. Demand side: Lysine, as one of the essential amino acids for animals, has wide applications in feed additives, pharmaceutical intermediates, food nutrition additives, and other fields. Global lysine demand growth is maintained at around 5%-6%, showing a relative stability. Vitamins: Intensified supply and demand contradictions, current prices at historical lows, VE manufacturers maintain a positive attitude towards holding up prices According to Baichuan Yingfu data, the significant price increase of vitamins in 2024 led to market overbuying, prematurely absorbing some of the demand for the 2025 market, resulting in poor sales for domestic manufacturers. The price decline of foreign market products and bearish sentiment have put pressure on the domestic market. Further release of production capacity for some enterprises will result in a more dispersed competition landscape for products such as VE and VB6. The weak inventory levels of channel distributors, downstream stocking, and increased export demand have contributed to a rebound in prices for some products. On February 5th, Zhejiang Nhu raised the export price of feed-grade VE 50% by 15%, followed by Beisha Pharmaceuticals synchronously raising the export price of VE to 7.5 USD/kg. Mainstream manufacturers have a positive attitude towards holding up prices in the future. According to data from Wind and Boya Hexun, on February 9, the market prices for VA (500,000 IU/g), VE (50%), VD3 (500,000 IU/g), VK3 (MSB96%), VB3 (nicotinic acid 99%), and VB5 (calcium pantothenate 98%) were 60.5, 57.0, 195.0, 70.0, 40.5, and 40.0 yuan/kg respectively, with historical percentiles of 0.0%, 10.2%, 27.7%, 15.5%, 10.6%, and 0.1% (since 2008). Investment advice: Currently, lysine and vitamin prices are at historical lows, considering cost support and stable demand growth, it is expected that product prices will rebound from their lows. Enterprises with cost and economies of scale advantages are expected to see profit recovery. Recommended targets include lysine (Zhejiang Nhu (002001.SZ), Sichuan Hebang Biotechnology (603077.SH), etc.) and vitamins (Zhejiang Nhu, Hubei Zhenhua Chemical (603067.SH), etc.). Beneficiaries include lysine (Bluestar Adisseo (600299.SH)) and vitamins (HuBei NengTer Technology (002102.SZ), Zhejiang Garden Biopharmaceutical (300401.SZ), Zhejiang Medicine (600216.SH), Brother Enterprises Holding (002562.SZ), etc.). Risk warning: Increased industry competition, lower-than-expected demand, safety and environmental protection issues in production, changes in trade policies, etc.