HSBC: Lower NAGACORP's target price to HK$6.5, lowering gambling volume and profit forecast.

Citigroup has released a research report stating that it has lowered its profit forecast for NAGACORP (03918) for the years 2025 to 2027 by 3% to 8%, and has reduced the target price for NAGACORP from 7 Hong Kong dollars to 6.5 Hong Kong dollars, maintaining a "buy" rating. Looking ahead, the bank still expects NAGACORP to benefit from the newly opened Douchang International Airport and Cambodia's four-month visa-free entry pilot program for Chinese tourists from June to October this year, which may boost customer traffic for Naga World under the NagaCorp. Citigroup pointed out that considering the recent weakness in visitor numbers in Cambodia, it has lowered its forecast for NAGACORP's gaming revenue in the second half of 2025 by about 4% to $6.5 billion, and has lowered its EBITDA forecast for the same period by about 11% to $206 million. The bank believes that with the extradition of Prince Group Chairman Chen Zhi to China in early January, the negative sentiment surrounding the group has largely subsided, but concerns about the tense situation on the Thai-Cambodian border may continue into the first quarter.