Riding the "space orbit computing power" trend, Rocket Lab (RKLB.US) had a "mixed start" to the year: Neutron faced setbacks while Electron succeeded in high orbit.

Rocket Lab(RKLB.US), known as the "SpaceX rival," announced that the first stage tank of their Neutron rocket ruptured during a hydrostatic pressure test. The company stated that it is not uncommon for test failures to occur during qualification testing. "We intentionally test structures to their limits to verify structural integrity and safety margins, ensuring that the stringent requirements for successful launches can be comfortably met," Rocket Lab said in an updated statement. In addition, their first commercial launch for 2026 was successful, with the mission "The Cosmos Will See You Now" launching from the Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 in Mahia, New Zealand. It is worth noting that the testing structure or facilities did not suffer significant damage, and the next first stage tank is already in active production. As the Rocket Lab professional research team reviews the first stage test data, the development timeline for the Neutron rocket will continue; the data from the first stage testing will determine the extent to which it will impact the launch schedule for the Neutron rocket. Commenting on the development progress, senior analyst Andre Madrid from BTIG stated that the company expects the Neutron rocket to complete one test launch and one paid launch in 2026, followed by four paid launches in 2027, seven in 2028, and nine in 2029. "However, depending on the specific investigation results, the initial launch may be pushed to the right," Madrid warned. The institution maintains a cautious "neutral" rating on Rocket Lab (RKLB.US) stock. In another update announcement, Rocket Lab stated that their first launch for 2026 was successful. The mission "The Cosmos Will See You Now" was launched today from the Rocket Lab Launch Complex 1 in Mahia, New Zealand. The mission successfully deployed two important satellites to a near-circular Earth orbit at 1,050 kilometers, with Open Cosmos as the customer, their first dedicated launch type customer. This deployment to a higher orbit demonstrates the wide payload trajectory range of the Electron rocket, maintaining its reputation in the aerospace field as a versatile and reliable small satellite launch vehicle that can meet diverse mission requirements. Since 2025, Rocket Lab's stock price has surged Rocket Lab's stock price fell more than 2% in pre-market trading on Thursday, after a 1.5% decline on Thursday, with a gain of 26% since the beginning of 2026. In the full year of 2025, Rocket Lab's stock price surged by as much as 175%. The significant rise in stock price since 2025 is more like a result of a "leap in the company's own fundamentals and order structure" combined with a "revaluation of the overall aerospace track"; the former being the main reason, while the latter (mainly including the unprecedented commercial aerospace boom led by SpaceX and valuation increases, as well as the narrative of "space data centers/space orbit computing power" led by SpaceX) plays more of a role as an emotional and multiple expansion catalyst, but this market dynamic catalyst for Rocket Lab's wild stock price surge can be considered a significant DRIVER. Huge orders from US national security/defense have propelled Rocket Lab from a "small rocket company" to a "prime defense aerospace contractor" growth narrative. In December 2025, Rocket Lab received an $8.16 billion TRKT3 (Tracking Layer Tranche 3) contract from the US SDA (Space Development Agency) as the primary contractor to design and manufacture 18 missile warning/tracking satellites; $8.06 billion is the base contract, with an additional option of up to approximately $10.45 million, and the company also emphasized supplying to other TRKT3 prime contractors as a "commercial supplier," with an overall capture value of "approximately $1 billion". Financially, Rocket Lab reported revenue of $155 million for Q3 2025 (a year-on-year increase of +48%), a GAAP gross margin of 37%, and gave Q4 revenue guidance of $170-180 million, with a GAAP gross margin of 37%-39%; it also mentioned having over $1 billion in liquidity at the end of the period through methods like ATM. This combination of "growth expectations from large orders, increasingly strong gross margin, and financial ammunition" is the core fuel for the trend of growth stock prices. Furthermore, the rising valuation of SpaceX and the potential US IPO preparation of the company have contributed to a "comparable revaluation of space exploration companies" for Rocket Lab, while more importantly, the "space AI data center/orbit computing power" boom led by SpaceX serves as a strong "theme catalyst" for Rocket Lab. As the AI boom begins to encounter bottlenecks in infrastructure and energy supply on a larger scale, the next major leap in AI may not happen on land but in spacethis is Elon Musk's grand vision proposed in X. "In a low-latency sun-synchronous orbit, AI computing satellites that only transmit the calculation results back will become the lowest-cost way to generate AI bitstreams within three years. Moreover, as existing power resources on Earth are scarce, achieving scale expansion within four years has already taken the lead. By launching satellites of 1 million-ton class annually, each equipped with 100 kilowatts of power, we can add 100 gigawatts of AI computing capacity per year without any operational or maintenance costs and connect them to the Starlink constellation through high-bandwidth lasers." "Furthermore, satellite factories can be built on the moon, and mass drivers (electromagnetic railguns) can be used to accelerate AI satellites to lunar escape velocity without the need for rockets. This will enable AI computing capacity to exceed 100 terawatts annually and take a significant step towards the Kardashev II civilization." Musk wrote in a post on X. One of the few players that can exert substantial competitive pressure on SpaceX Rocket Lab is an "end-to-end" commercial aerospace company: they provide launch services, manufacture satellites/spacecraft and core components (Space Systems), and are moving towards larger reusable rockets. Their business model is closer to a combination of "launch + spacecraft manufacturing/component supply + mission and on-orbit capabilities" rather than a single rocket launch company. The Electron is their flagship small launch vehicle, providing "dedicated launch + rideshare launch" for small satellites, emphasizing "rapid, frequent, customized access to orbit." As of December 31, 2024, Rocket Lab disclosed that since the first flight of Electron in 2017, they have launched over 200 spacecraft into space, completing 54 successful orbital missions; they mentioned that Electron became the second highest frequency orbital rocket among US operating companies and the second highest frequency orbital launcher globally in 2024. In the realm of medium reusable rockets, Rocket Lab's Neutron is an important attempt to "benchmark against SpaceX Falcon 9," but the key is "whether it can fly on time and establish a rhythm of reuse." Neutron is officially positioned as reusable, with its recovery strategy and infrastructure publicly disclosed, but whether it can become a competitor to Falcon 9 depends on: the first flight time, number of reuses, turnaround time, unit cost, annual launch frequency, and order structure. SpaceX's Falcon 9/Heavy has established a mature "reusable + high-frequency" delivery system and has clearly indicated its ability range from medium to heavy and Rideshare in the official user guide. Therefore, if Rocket Lab's Neutron successfully commercializes on a large scale, Rocket Lab will be one of the few players that can exert substantial competitive pressure on SpaceX in the medium reusable market; however, until Neutron establishes a stable rhythm, it remains a follower.