Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures are all rising, and the November PCE data will be released tonight.

1. Before the US stock market on January 22nd (Thursday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose together. As of the time of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 0.35%, the S&P 500 Index futures rose 0.56%, and the Nasdaq futures rose 0.83%. 2. As of the time of writing, the DAX index in Germany rose by 1.16%, the FTSE 100 index in the UK rose by 0.45%, the CAC 40 index in France rose by 1.19%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose by 1.33%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell by 1.50%, to $59.71 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 1.41%, to $64.32 per barrel. Market News The market expects US November inflation pressure to remain stable, with a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged next week. A key inflation report expected to be released on Thursday evening Beijing time is expected to show that US inflation pressure remains stable, further explaining why Federal Reserve officials remain cautious on interest rate cuts. According to FactSet's forecast, the most closely watched inflation indicator by the Federal Reserve, the November core PCE price index is expected to rise by 0.2% on a monthly basis and by 2.8% year-on-year; the overall PCE is expected to also grow by 0.2% on a monthly basis and by 2.8% year-on-year. If the forecast is correct, it will indicate that inflation is running horizontally within a range significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Although some indicators show potential inflation pressures are slowly cooling, the core PCE usually fluctuates more slowly than the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Data shows that the CPI stabilized at 2.7% year-on-year in December 2025. Investors currently expect a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting next Wednesday. Ray Dalio: The surge in gold prices is not coincidental, global central banks are accelerating "de-dollarization." Ray Dalio, the founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, stated that there is a sustained de-dollarization trend globally, especially at the level of global central banks. Dalio said on Thursday, "When you see gold rise by 67%, it's not as simple as a precious metal rising by 60%," "Gold is being bought in large quantities by central banks of various countries, especially other investors, with the aim of diversifying their legal currency, not just moving away from the dollar." When talking about global tensions, he noted that people are paying much attention to trade wars, but are paying far less attention to what he calls "capital wars" and their impact on market operations. Regarding US President Trump's remarks about seeking to purchase Greenland without the use of force, Dalio believes that this statement is very important because it draws a bottom line, a red line. Federal Reserve's new leader's ultimate challenge: a $6.6 trillion "balance sheet bomb" and a direct conflict with the White House's rate-cutting order. As investors await US President Trump's nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, a key issue has come to the forefront, how the candidates will manage the central bank's balance sheet, which stands at an unprecedented $6.6 trillion. While many focus on whether Trump's choice will significantly lower borrowing costs, as he has pressured current Chairman Powell for the past few months, another major issue is whether the central bank should continue to buy government bonds to maintain its current balance sheet size or try to withdraw more liquidity from the financial system. Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is seen as the leading candidate for Trump to announce his nomination as soon as next week. President Trump stated on Wednesday that the selection process for the new Fed Chairman from as many as 11 candidates has neared completion since September of last year and hinted that he has someone in mind. Accenture Plc Class A (ACN.US) CEO at Davos: Countries must prioritize building data centers for AI layout, or strategic initiatives will be difficult to implement. Julie Sweet, CEO of Accenture Plc Class A, recently stated that in the race among governments to lay down the groundwork for artificial intelligence (AI), data centers should be a core part of the strategy. Sweet said in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, "One must consider the long term. The misconception that some people have is that data centers are only short-term facilities, when in fact it's about national strategy. We are assisting multiple countries in this effort, especially in planning sovereign AI strategies, which requires a corresponding support system of data centers." US sanctions on Venezuela trigger an "ocean rush" of oil tankers, leading to a general increase in global crude oil freight rates. With the US taking action to strengthen control over the flow of Venezuelan oil, global crude oil tanker freight rates are experiencing a widespread surge. Previously, Venezuela's oil trade was mainly carried out by a "shadow fleet" composed of old vessels. Anticipating an increased demand for ships, ship owners are deploying compliant oil tankers near the Gulf of Mexico in the US, rather than keeping them in the main oil-producing areas like the Middle East. This has led to a significant increase in freight rates for routes to China, echoing recent increases in the Caribbean region and Mexico. Stock Market News GE Aviation (GE.US) exceeds expectations with Q4 revenue and profits, highlighting growth confidence in annual guidance. On Thursday, the world's largest jet engine manufacturer, GE Aviation, announced better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and annual profit outlook. GE Aviation expects adjusted earnings per share for 2026 to be between $7.10 and $7.40, with the midpoint higher than the analyst average estimate of $7.10. At the same time, the company expects adjusted revenue to achieve low double-digit percentage growth. In terms of fourth-quarter performance, the company's adjusted earnings per share reached $1.57, higher than analysts' estimates of $1.43; adjusted revenue was $11.9 billion, also surpassing the market's expectations of $11.2 billion. Over the past 12 months, its stock price has surged by nearly 70%, far outperforming the S&P 500 index during the same period. Regardless of who buys Warner Bros., JP Morgan (JPM.US) and Allen & Company are already winning big: hundreds of millions of dollars are already secured. In the bidding war between Netflix and Paramount for Warner Bros., JP Morgan and Allen & Company have emerged as clear beneficiaries. According to securities filing documents disclosed on Tuesday, JP Morgan and Allen & Company, as advisors to Warner Bros., are set to each receive a $90 million fee from the deal. Sources revealed that JP Morgan also earned a significant amount of money for its role in providing Warner Bros. with a $17.5 billion bridge loan. This loan allowed Warner Bros. Discovery Company to separate its cable news network and sports programming from its movie and television division. Sources requested to remain anonymous to discuss internal matters. It is understood that Paramount Plus plans to extend the deadline for its hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery but will not increase its offer of $30 per share. "A new star in AI" Anthropica's latest financing frenzy: Annual revenue and valuation double, with a swarm of venture capital. In its latest round of financing, Anthropica PBC has secured at least $1 billion in investments from institutions such as Coatue Management, the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC), and Iconiq Capital - underscoring a recent surge of investor enthusiasm in the AI startup sector. Sources revealed that Anthropica's Revenue Run Rate (RRR) has more than doubled since last summer and is projected to exceed $9 billion by the end of 2025. The company's Revenue Run Rate (an indicator that predicts annual revenue based on short-term forecasts) was $4 billion in July of last year. Multiple sources disclosed that the subscription for this deal has been enthusiastic, with supporters committing funds exceeding the company's previous $10 billion target raised from investment firms. Intel Corporation (INTC.US) wins a $151 billion defense deal! Intel Corporation's new Government Technology Vice President James Chew announced on Tuesday that the company has successfully won a significant contract from the US Department of Defense to become the chip supplier for the Missile Defense Agency's Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense (SHIELD) project under an indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contract with a maximum ceiling of $151 billion. Additionally, Intel Corporation is set to release its financial report after the market closes on January 22nd. Shareholders of Intel Corporation are highly optimistic about the company's financial report this time, as they are betting that CEO Pat Gelsinger's promised transformation plan has begun to show results, and the large-scale expansion of data centers is driving strong demand for Intel Corporation's traditional server chips. Intel Corporation closed 11.72% higher on Wednesday and continued to rise by 1.2% in pre-market trading. Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR (BABA.US) chip company Pingtouge is reportedly planning to go public independently. Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR is preparing to list its chip company Pingtouge to cater to investors' strong interest in the hot field of artificial intelligence accelerators. According to sources familiar with the matter, Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR plans to restructure the department into a company partially owned by employees. These sources stated that the company will then consider an initial public offering (IPO), but the specific timing is not yet clear. At the time of this news, Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR rose nearly 4% in pre-market trading. Upcoming Economic Data and Events 21:30 Beijing time: US Q3 real GDP annualized rate final value (%), US initial jobless claims up to January 12th (million). 23:00 Beijing time: US personal spending rate in November (%), US PCE price index annual rate in November (%). 01:00 the next day Beijing time: US EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending January 16th (thousand barrels). 02:00 the next day Beijing time: US 10-year TIPS auction on January 22nd - total amount (billion US dollars). 23:30: Tesla, Inc. CEO Elon Musk delivers a speech at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting. To be determined: EU leaders hold an emergency summit in Brussels to discuss relevant plans to deal with Trump's tariff threats. Earnings Forecast Friday morning: Intel Corporation (INTC.US), Alcoa Corporation (AA.US) Friday pre-market: Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson Sponsored ADR Class B (ERIC.US), SLB (SLB.US)