Cinda: Maintains a "buy" rating for POP MART (09992) with continued high business prosperity.

Cinda released a research report stating that POP MART (09992) issued a share repurchase announcement. On January 19, 2026, the company spent 251 million HKD to repurchase 1.4 million shares, with a repurchase price per share of 177.7-181.2 HKD. The bank predicts that the company's attributable net profit for the years 2025-2027 will be 13.51 / 17.90 / 21.61 billion yuan respectively, with PEs of 18.0X / 13.6X / 11.3X, maintaining a "buy" rating. Cinda's main points are as follows: The domestic market is on the rise POP MART has a large user base and outstanding stickiness. The IP matrix is diversified in development, with heat being maintained. The percentages of MOLLY/SKULLPANDA/CRYBABY/DIMOO are balanced, and the popularity of the STAR PEOPLE IP is rapidly increasing. The company has recently directly promoted the rational return of second-hand market prices by frequently releasing goods. This measure is the company's initiative to adjust production capacity and supply, leading the market towards a state of supply-demand balance and regaining pricing power. The second-hand prices are reasonable, building a healthy business ecology based on real consumer demand, which is beneficial in the long run for expanding the user base and brand value precipitation. Significant potential in overseas markets Many markets around the world are in the early stages, with lower channel density compared to domestic markets. The certainty of future channel expansion is strong, but there are objective issues such as short IP cycles, relatively weak channel carrying capacity, and dependence on single IP. The company is consciously increasing offline supply globally, guiding consumers to shift from online to offline, and encouraging offline pickup. At the same time, POP MART's supply chain is concentrated in Asia, and the significant growth in the American market is leading to structural constraints in the company's supply chain. The company needs to gradually streamline its supply chain and logistics issues, product and channel structure issues, and issues related to localized team configuration. First, solve operational problems, then focus on laying out IP products, which is more conducive to the company's long-term overseas development. As the core toy consumption market in the world, the United States has huge growth potential in the short term with operational capability as the foundation and IP momentum driving in the long term, in line with the company's long-term logic of overseas market development. Sales tracking According to Google Trends data, the search popularity of POP MART's core IP "Labubu" peaked significantly before and after Christmas and still remains above the daily average range, with a slight increase in popularity nearing the end of December. Risk factors: Weak consumption, intensified industry competition, and new product promotions falling short of expectations.