Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures fell more than 1%, trade disputes may put pressure on the market opening, Netflix (NFLX.US) announced its financial report after hours.

1. Before the market on January 20 (Tuesday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes fell together. As of the time of writing, Dow Jones futures fell by 1.24%, S&P 500 index futures fell by 1.34%, and Nasdaq futures fell by 1.65%. 2. As of the time of writing, the Germany DAX index fell by 1.21%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.86%, the France CAC 40 index fell by 0.89%, and the EuroStoxx 50 index fell by 1.01%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 0.78%, trading at $59.80 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 0.67%, trading at $64.37 per barrel. Market News Wedbush: Greenland tariff dispute may pressure market opening, opportunity to position in tech stocks. According to Wedbush, the worries in the market triggered by the Greenland tariff dispute may lead to a weak market opening, but it also provides investors with an opportunity to buy "tech winners". Analyst Dan Ives and his team pointed out that the focus on the Greenland issue sparked by President Trump may have led to a cautious market opening on Tuesday. Despite the tariff issue being a focal point at the Davos World Economic Forum, it is expected that with progress in negotiations and easing tensions, the ultimate impact will be limited. The analysis team believes that while tech stocks may be impacted by "risk aversion" sentiment, the current market volatility provides a chance for long-term investors to position themselves in tech stocks for 2026 and beyond. Davos Forum focused on Greenland turmoil, while Trump wants to talk about lowering house prices and capping interest rates. Trump has promised to announce a wide-ranging consumer relief plan in his speech at the World Economic Forum on Wednesday. Major banks on Wall Street, tech companies, and real estate developers are included in this plan. However, ahead of this announcement over the weekend, Trump's tough rhetoric has put Europe on edge. He has declared his intention to secure control over Greenland and has threatened to impose tariffs on NATO allies who support Greenland's relationship with Denmark. As European countries plan to hold separate meetings in response to Trump, and with Danish officials collectively absent from this year's Davos Forum, the president seems to be trying to shift public attention back to consumer relief by posting on social media about mortgage rates and his economic agenda. Tariff war looming! Bank of America survey raises alarms: Nearly half of investors "naked" in the market. A survey conducted by Bank of America prior to the escalating Greenland situation over the weekend revealed that fund managers' sentiment has reached its most bullish point since July 2021, while protective positions against market pullbacks have plunged to an eight-year low. Bank of America strategists stated that in the January survey, a net 38% of respondents expected global growth to strengthen, a figure that soared significantly from the previous month. Cash levels have dropped to historic lows and equity allocations have risen to their highest level since December 2024, with 48% of managers in an overweight position. This has driven the sentiment indicator from the survey to its highest level in over four years. The survey results have also pushed Bank of America Corp's "Bull & Bear Indicator" to an "extreme bull market" level. However, nearly half of the participants said they have not taken any protective measures against a significant drop in stock prices. Tech stocks continue to dominate the bull market: S&P 500 profit expectations soar, Mag 7 still the strongest engine. According to the latest statistics, Wall Street analysts' full-year earnings growth expectations for the S&P 500 index have risen significantly from a year-over-year increase of 20.9% on October 17 to the most recent estimate as of January 16 (an increase of 25.4%). Analysts expect the earnings growth rate of the broad tech sector within the S&P 500 index to outpace the overall earnings growth of the S&P 500 index in 2026. Based on the latest expectations, Wall Street analysts predict that the earnings growth rate of the broad tech sector within the S&P 500 index for the full year 2025 is +25.4%, and they expect the earnings growth rate for the tech sector in 2026 to reach an astonishing +31.1%, significantly higher than the 2025 growth rate and well above the historical average earnings level of the US stock market. The impact of the seven tech giants is significant. Bessent: Trump may finalize new Fed Chair as early as next week. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that with the White House's search for a new Federal Reserve leader garnering high attention, President Trump may announce his chosen nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair as early as next week. Bessent said during a press conference at Davos on Tuesday, "we have four excellent candidates - the president will decide. I imagine he may make an announcement as early as next week." He is currently attending the World Economic Forum. After a long search led by Bessent, the process of selecting the successor to current Chair Powell is said to have narrowed down to four contenders. The final competitors include: Rick Rieder, Global Chief Investment Officer at BlackRock, Inc., Kevin Hassett, Chair of the National Economic Council, Christopher Waller, Federal Reserve Board Governor, and former Governor Kevin Warsh. However, the dynamics of this competition appear to have changed in recent weeks. US dollar drops to two-week low! Greenland dispute escalates, causing continued turmoil in the currency market. As President Trump shows no signs of backing down in his bid to control Greenland and threatens to impose new tariffs on France, the exchange rate of the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in two weeks, while the cost of forex hedging has also increased. The Bloomberg US Dollar Spot Index has dropped to its weakest level since January 6, and is set to register one of its worst two-day performances in about a month. The Euro has risen to a nearly two-week high, while the Swiss Franc is leading gains among the G10 currencies. Trump's threats to impose tariffs on European countries opposing his plan to take Greenland from Denmark have sparked concerns in the market about a major trade conflict. Simultaneously, following French President Macron's refusal to join his latest peace initiative, Trump has suggested imposing a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne. Individual Stock News Netflix (NFLX.US) earnings preview: Q4 earnings and revenues expected to be solid, but market focus remains on Warner acquisition. Netflix is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter earnings after the US market closes on Tuesday. Despite recent attention on Netflix's acquisition of Warner Bros., the upcoming earnings report will temporarily shift the market focus. Analysts expect Netflix to earn $0.55 per share in the fourth quarter, with revenues of $12 billion, but revenue growth in the next three quarters may slow down until it picks up again in 2027. Benchmark believes that while the earnings report may not shift investors' focus from the acquisition, it may remind the market of Netflix's solid fundamentals and the growth potential of streaming TV. They also anticipate accelerated international growth for Netflix, with optimism about its advertising partnership with Amazon.com, Inc. The proposal for Netflix to acquire Warner Bros. for $8.27 billion has caused market unease, but some investors see it as a buying opportunity. Europe considering selling trillion-dollar assets, popular tech stocks fall in pre-market trading. As of the time of writing, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) was down by 1.87% in pre-market trading, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) was down by 1.96%, AMD (AMD.US) was down by 1.77%, Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) was down by 2.38%, and Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) was down by 2.38%. In terms of news, President Trump announced via social media that starting from February 1, the US will impose a 10% tariff on eight European countries including Denmark, Germany, France, and the UK. European countries are considering retaliatory tariffs and broader economic countermeasures, including selling assets worth trillions of dollars. CapitalWatch releases short report, Applovin (APP.US) down over 7% in pre-market trading. On January 20, CapitalWatch released an investigation report about the Nasdaq-listed company AppLovin Corporation. The report alleges that the main shareholder behind Applovin, Hao Tang, and his funding network are involved in cross-border crime syndicate money laundering activities, assisting a "Southeast Asian pig-killing scheme". As of the time of writing, Applovin was down by 7.03% in pre-market trading. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) H200 chip export to China suddenly blocked, supply chain halted with millions of orders in limbo. According to sources, related component suppliers have halted production due to China Customs' suspension of NVIDIA Corporation's H200 artificial intelligence chip imports. NVIDIA Corporation had expected to receive orders exceeding 1 million chips from Chinese clients, and its suppliers had been operating in the hopes of starting shipments as early as March. NVIDIA Corporation has not immediately replied to requests for comment. BHP Group Ltd Sponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 2 Shs (BHP.US) quarterly iron ore production slightly rises, raises full-year copper production guidance. In the three months ending December, the world's largest mining company, BHP Group Ltd Sponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 2 Shs, produced 69.7 million tons of iron ore, a 5% increase from the same period last year, and reiterated its annual production forecast. The miner maintained its forecast for iron ore production for the year at between 284 million tons and 296 million tons, stating that the solid production in the first half of the fiscal year has set a positive tone for the typically rainy third quarter. BHP Group Ltd Sponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 2 Shs also raised the lower limit of its copper production forecast. The company now expects copper production to be between 1.9 million and 2 million tons in the fiscal year ending June 30, slightly higher than the previous estimate of 1.8 million to 2 million tons. The spot copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has surged significantly and exceeded forward futures. The price of copper contracts due to expire on Wednesday is $64 higher than those expiring on Thursday, marking one of the largest increases ever. Important Economic Data and Event Announcements Next day at 03:35 Beijing time: NYMEX New York crude oil futures for February affected by rollover, the final trading on January 21 at 3:30 a.m., with the final electronic trading at 6:00 a.m., please pay attention to the rollover risk control notice from the trading venue. In addition, some trading platforms usually roll over US oil contracts one day earlier than NYMEX official notices, so pay extra attention. Earnings Reports Wednesday morning: Netflix (NFLX.US), Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Class A (IBKR.US) Wednesday pre-market: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US), Halliburton (HAL.US)