Airline financial reports season is coming soon, and Citigroup is betting on business travel to ignite a new round of growth trajectory.

A research report on the aviation sector released by the Wall Street financial giant Citigroup shows that by observing the Business Travel Barometer compiled by the institution, which tracks the "10-day moving average based on booking date" data, the institution predicts a strong rebound in business travel in the US and global markets early this year, which is expected to continue at least until the next round of airline financial reports after Q4 2025, potentially driving strong growth in the performance of major airlines. Citigroup holds a "constructive view" on the airline sector in the US stock market, especially favoring United Airlines (UAL.US), believing that it will benefit from the recovery of business travel, long-term profit margin improvement, and lower valuation advantages. Citigroup's analyst team explained that even if United Airlines' performance guidance is conservative and may not significantly exceed expectations, the market may have a stronger positive reaction to the financial results due to improved demand signals and expectation resets. Citigroup is betting that the airline industry has entered a "structural improvement cycle," with the recovery of business travel as the main theme. Citigroup is highly optimistic about the upcoming 4Q25 American Airlines Group Inc. financial reporting season, expecting strong growth trends in the performance of major airlines. The key reason cited by Citigroup is that business travel-related indicators are expected to rebound significantly in early 2026 (last week, Delta Air Lines, Inc. already confirmed similar expected growth dynamics in their 4Q25 earnings call), and demand resilience persists. Citigroup emphasizes that the 4Q25 airline financial reporting season will show strong performance, driven mainly by the rebound in business travel demand and strong growth in international travel. Citigroup believes that the airline industry has entered a "structural improvement cycle," with the recovery of business travel as the main theme. The core anchor point of Citigroup's optimistic assessment lies in the significant rebound in business travel indicators shown in the early Business Travel Barometer, and mentions that Delta Air Lines, Inc. also mentioned similar demand dynamics in their recent earnings call, so Citigroup chose to update the data before the "upcoming week when global airlines report earnings" to verify the trend continuity. This statement in Citigroup's research report essentially indicates that short-term demand/booking momentum is a significant tailwind for the latest round of airline financial reports in the US stock market. As the Business Travel Barometer shows a sustained growth trend in business travel demand, corporate orders and international travel routes will become the key drivers of airline performance growth; consumer travel demand is expected to stabilize, but the focus of growth has begun to shift towards high-profit corporate clients. On the supply side, Citigroup emphasizes that the airline industry has good capacity discipline with no risk of excessive expansion, supporting price resilience. As the narrative of improving profit margins continues, leading airlines in the industry such as United Airlines (UAL.US) will improve their ROE through cost control and operational efficiency, so from a long-term perspective, industry valuations are expected to re-enter an expansion curve. First choice for "supermajors" - United Airlines Citigroup specifically names United Airlines (UAL.US) as its preferred tactical long-haul airline stock among "supermajors" before the upcoming season of intensive financial disclosures, emphasizing United Airlines' unique narrative of long-term profit margin improvement compared to its counterparts. This means that Citigroup prefers airline stocks like United Airlines that are more sensitive to business/international demand and have profit margin improvement elasticity, rather than just betting on industry-level beta (). Citigroup's exclusive business travel indicators show a significant strengthening of business travel demand early in the year, expected to continue throughout the year, indicating a strong recovery in corporate order demand, which directly benefits high-profit business class revenue. Therefore, Citigroup gives United Airlines a target stock price of up to $153, based on a 6.5 times 2027 EV/EBITDAR and as high as 10 times expected 2027 P/E, significantly lower than historical peak levels, indicating a wide upside potential for valuation. Citigroup emphasizes that United Airlines has higher exposure to corporate and international premium travel segments compared to its peers, benefiting from early manufacturing themes (such as political easing by GEO Group Inc and global economic resilience).