The performance in the fourth quarter is expected to continue the traditional trend of "exceeding expectations". HSBC maintains a "buy" rating on Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US).

HSBC bank releases research reports, reiterating a "buy" rating for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) with a target price of $300. The bank holds a positive attitude towards the upcoming 2025 fourth-quarter financial report of Amazon.com, Inc. Fourth quarter expected to continue the tradition of "beating expectations" HSBC predicts that Amazon.com, Inc.'s performance in the fourth quarter will continue its strong performance, mainly based on the following reasons: first, management guidance is conservative, leaving room for actual performance to exceed expectations. Historical data shows that Amazon.com, Inc. has exceeded operating profit guidance for 12 consecutive quarters. Second, AWS cloud services are accelerating growth again, with revenue in the third quarter increasing by 20.2% year-on-year (higher than the 17.5% in the second quarter), and management believes this growth is "sustainable." HSBC expects that AWS growth will benefit from two factors: the expansion of cloud computing capacity (planned to double capacity by 2027) and media reports that AWS has raised EC2 service prices by about 15%. Third, strong sales data on Black Friday/Cyber Monday (U.S. e-commerce sales increased by 7.7% year-on-year to $44.2 billion) show consumer demand resilience, and Amazon.com, Inc. is expected to seize market share through its logistics network and discount strategies. Four major strategic themes driving growth in 2026 Looking ahead to 2026, HSBC believes that the following four core points should be focused on: cloud demand, enterprise AI applications, e-commerce market share, and capital expenditure. Continued strong demand for AWS: The global cloud computing market faces capacity constraints, and AWS plans to add computing power far exceeding competitors in the next two years. In addition, the launch of the AI chip Trainium3 (with performance more than four times higher than the previous generation) will reduce AI development costs and attract more enterprise customers. Deepening enterprise AI applications: AWS released multiple AI innovations (such as the Nova model and Frontier Agents) at the end of 2025's "re:Invent" conference, accelerating digital transformation for enterprise customers. HSBC predicts that AWS will benefit from exploding demand for AI infrastructure. Expansion of e-commerce market share: Amazon.com, Inc. plans to expand its next-day delivery service to cover over 4,000 small and medium-sized cities in the U.S., further penetrating high-frequency consumption areas such as groceries. Currently ranked second in the U.S. online grocery market, upgrades to its logistics network may drive up market share. Increased capital expenditure: HSBC predicts that Amazon.com, Inc.'s capital expenditure in 2026 is expected to reach $150 billion (a 20% increase year-on-year), primarily for expanding data centers and investing in logistics facilities to support long-term growth. In conclusion, HSBC believes that Amazon.com, Inc. is at an excellent balance point: AWS benefits from the simultaneous increase in AI computing power and prices, while the retail business will squeeze out profits through extreme logistics efficiency. Despite short-term fluctuations, the bank believes that Amazon.com, Inc.'s long-term growth logic is clear, and investors should focus on the guidance for AWS growth and capital expenditure in the fourth-quarter financial report, as these factors will validate the long-term growth trajectory.