Narrative drives the main uptrend in Barclays reiterates its "neutral" rating for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US)

Barclays released a research report, reaffirming its "neutral" rating on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) and stating that fundamentals are still a "secondary factor" for this stock. The analysts at the firm stated, "We believe that Tesla, Inc.'s stock performance in 2025 will be mainly narrative-driven, with fundamentals seemingly being ignored." CEO Musk has emphasized multiple times that "Tesla, Inc. is fundamentally an AI company", and he has identified autonomous driving and Siasun Robot & Automation as key to future development. Tesla, Inc. is currently preparing to expand its Texas Gigafactory once again, planning to build a dedicated facility for mass production of its humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation Optimus, with a goal of achieving an annual production capacity of 10 million units. Musk also revealed that the company's Robotaxi fleet is expected to double in size next month. At the end of last year, Tesla, Inc. surprisingly published a summary of pessimistic analyst delivery volume expectations on its official website, showing that the mean expected delivery volume for the fourth quarter was 422,850 vehicles, a 15% year-on-year decrease, more pessimistic than the market consensus of 440,000 vehicles. 20 institutions including Daiwa, Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., and Barclays participated in the estimation. Based on current expectations, its full-year delivery volume for 2025 is projected to decrease to around 1.64 million vehicles, an 8% year-on-year decline. This will be the second consecutive year of declining sales for Tesla, Inc. after a 1% decrease in 2024's 1.789 million vehicles. It is worth noting that Tesla, Inc. explicitly states that it "does not endorse any information, recommendations, or conclusions of analysts", and only objectively presents the aggregated consensus data. Normally, Tesla, Inc. would aggregate sell-side analysts' forecasts for future delivery data, but such information has typically been sent directly via email by the Investor Relations team to specific analysts and major investment institutions, with very few public disclosures. Market analysts believe that Tesla, Inc. is now choosing to disclose this lower consensus expectation data in order to lower market expectations ahead of the official delivery and production report in early January 2026. Gary Black, co-founder of Future Fund Advisors, commented that this move is "extremely unusual". He speculates that the actual delivery volume for Tesla, Inc. is likely around 420,000 vehicles.