Maintain the "buy" rating of GCL TECH (03800) and are optimistic about the significant improvement in the company's 25H2 performance.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that it is expected that GCL TECH (03800) will have a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.06/13.70 billion yuan in 2026-2027, with EPS of 0.01/0.05 yuan per share, and BPS of 1.24/1.29 yuan per share. Referring to comparable companies, the company is given a valuation of 1.2x PB for 2025, maintaining a "hold" rating. The price trend in the second half of the year is good, and the bank is optimistic that the company's performance in the second half of 2025 will significantly improve. The report indicates that the cash cost (including R&D) of the company's granular silicon in Q1/Q2 2025 was 27.07/25.31 yuan/kg, showing a continuous downward trend. With continuous process optimization, technological advancement, and material iteration, the quality of the company's granular silicon products has stabilized and improved. Based on the excellent purity and stability of the granular silicon products, customer adhesion to the company's granular silicon continues to strengthen. According to Infolink statistics, in July 2025, the transaction price of granular silicon exceeded that of traditional N-type dense blocks for the first time. According to the Silicon Industry Association, on June 25, the average price of N-type granular silicon was 33,500 yuan/ton, and on September 3, it was 48,000 yuan/ton, a 43% increase. On August 19, six departments jointly held a symposium on the photovoltaic industry to further regulate the competition order in the photovoltaic industry and crack down on illegal activities such as selling below cost price and false marketing. The bank believes that the promotion of anti-vulnerability will support the stable upward trend of silicon prices. The participation of multiple departments in the symposium indicates high attention to policies, and the price increase will lead to a significant improvement in the company's performance.