Stock buyback frenzy in the US! JP Morgan predicts that the future buyback size could increase by another $600 billion.

JPMorgan's strategists have stated that with stock buybacks limiting stock supply, the size of buybacks in the US in the coming years could increase by $600 billion. Led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the strategist team predicts that after reaching a record $1.5 trillion in buybacks in 2025, its value in US dollars will further soar. This trend will be driven by a rebound in stock buybacks to levels of 3% to 4% of stock market value before the pandemic (currently at 2.6%). In a report to clients on Thursday, they wrote, "US buybacks have strongly propelled the stock market rise this year and may become even stronger in the coming years." Global stock buybacks have already reached last year's full-year level in the first eight months of 2025. Strategists say that buyback activity, combined with sluggish IPOs, continues to keep stock supply in negative territory. Panigirtzoglou and colleagues wrote, "From a supply perspective, publicly traded stocks continue to receive strong support, with the number of stocks of listed companies consistently shrinking. This marks the fourth consecutive year of this unprecedented trend." Buybacks have been a powerful driving factor in stock performance this year. Year-to-date, US stocks with the highest buyback-to-market value ratio have outperformed an equal-weighted S&P 500 benchmark index by nearly 6 percentage points. However, other factors may dampen buyback activity. Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider and his team stated earlier this week that buyback growth among S&P 500 companies has recently stalled after a record first half of the year. Goldman strategists wrote, "High interest rates and surging capital expenditures will constrain buyback growth unless stock valuations unexpectedly decline or AI investment sharply slows down."