Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) from electric vehicles to AISiasun Robot & Automation platform: Morgan Stanley maintains overweight, target price of $410.

Morgan Stanley's latest research report shows that the bank maintains a "buy" rating on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) with a target price of $410. Morgan Stanley points out that the integration between Tesla, Inc. and other companies owned by Musk (such as SpaceX, Neuralink, etc.) will become closer. For example, the xA data center will be used to train Siasun Robot & Automation, Starlink will provide services for land, sea, and air autonomous vehicles, Optimus Siasun Robot & Automation limbs will be combined with Neuralink's brain-machine interface technology to form a mutually developing ecosystem. This will further expand Tesla, Inc.'s application scenarios and market space in the field of artificial intelligence and Siasun Robot & Automation. The institution has constructed an analytical framework from four dimensions to reveal Tesla, Inc.'s strategic depth in the AI-Siasun Robot & Automation era. Financial Engine: EPS doubling in three years and dual-track forecasting with ModelWare The research report predicts that Tesla, Inc.'s EPS from 2024 to 2027 will increase from $2.41 to $4.34, with a CAGR of 21.3%. It is worth noting that the ModelWare model gives a more conservative forecast of $0.9 for 2025, reflecting a valuation discrepancy between traditional manufacturing and AI empowerment. In 2026, the two models converge to $2.69/$2.2, confirming the profit turning point of FSD (fully autonomous driving) scaling. In terms of valuation, Morgan Stanley's valuation of Tesla, Inc. consists of five parts, with a total target price of $410. Specifically, the core valuation of Tesla, Inc.'s automotive business is $76 per share, based on the expected sales volume of 46 million cars in 2030, a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.0%, an EBITDA multiple of 14 times in 2030, and an exit EBITDA profit margin of 16.2%. In addition, the valuation of network services is $159 per share, assuming an average revenue per user (ARPU) of $200 by 2040 and a penetration rate of 65%; the valuation of Tesla, Inc.'s mobile business is $90 per share, based on expected revenue of about $146 per mile and approximately 75 million cars; the valuation of the energy business is $68 per share; and the valuation of Tesla, Inc.'s business as a third-party supplier is $17 per share. Technological Breakthroughs: 2000 Siasun Robot & Automation taxis cover 10 cities in the US The core innovation focuses on autonomous driving and the Siasun Robot & Automation ecosystem. Morgan Stanley predicts that by the end of 2026, Tesla, Inc. will deploy 2000 Siasun Robot & Automation taxis in the United States, covering 5-10 cities, which is 18 months ahead of market expectations. The physical/cognitive capabilities of humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation (Optimus) will achieve an exponential increase, with a third-party supply value of $17 per share. In terms of the low-altitude economy, the shortage of eVTOLs in the United States will drive the number of aerial Siasun Robot & Automation vehicles to be 10 times that of ground-based Siasun Robot & Automation, creating a market worth $5 trillion. Tesla, Inc. is poised to leverage its technological advantage in this emerging field, participating in the development of the low-altitude economy and providing innovative solutions for future transportation and logistics. Ecological Integration: Muskonomy synergy and reconfiguration of US-China relations The ecological synergy (Muskonomy) between Tesla, Inc. and xAI data centers, Starlink, and Neuralink continues to deepen. US-China relations in the field of AI-Siasun Robot & Automation exhibit a strategic balance trend - China's leading advantage in AI-empowered manufacturing is expected to expand in the next 3-5 years, followed by technology inflow through intellectual property exports. American companies are accelerating the introduction of Chinese AI patents, forming a new paradigm of "Chinese innovation - American commercialization". Risk Matrix: Coexistence of upside potential and execution challenges Upside risks include revenue growth, FSD attachment rate improvement, breakthroughs in new battery technology, and the launch of new models such as Cybertruck. Downside risks focus on execution risks (multiple factory production), market recognition of Dojo computing services, political risks of China's GEO Group Inc, and pressure from equity dilution. Historical data shows that the target price has jumped from $90.67 in 2020 to $410 in 2025, confirming analysts' ongoing confidence in Tesla, Inc.'s technology roadmap. Morgan Stanley believes that Tesla, Inc. has transitioned from an electric vehicle manufacturer to an AI-Siasun Robot & Automation platform company, and its valuation model needs to incorporate multiple growth poles such as Siasun Robot & Automation taxis, Optimus limbs, and the low-altitude economy. The current target price of $410 reflects not only the valuation of existing businesses but also includes a future discount of the $5 trillion market potential of humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, forming a hardcore investment logic that spans cycles.