The US Supreme Court will quickly review the case of Trump's tariffs. Economic data pressure pushes down interest rate expectations. US stocks hit new highs again.

The United States Supreme Court announced on Tuesday that it will expedite the review of a major case concerning the Trump administration's tariff policies. This ruling will directly impact core economic measures implemented by Trump during his second term. The case focuses on whether Trump has the authority to unilaterally impose tariffs on foreign imports without congressional approval, relying on emergency powers laws. The case involves two types of tariffs established by Trump. One type is "reciprocal tariffs" targeting specific countries, while the other type is additional tariffs of 25% imposed by Trump on countries such as Canada and Mexico for reportedly failing to effectively curb the flow of fentanyl into the United States. The tariffs of up to 50% on global steel and aluminum products are not within the scope of this review. Previously, the US Federal Court of Appeals ruled on August 29 that Trump's global tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act exceeded his presidential authority, as the law does not grant the president the power to indefinitely impose global tariffs. The Constitution clearly states that the power to set tariffs belongs to Congress. Subsequently, the Trump administration appealed the decision. The Supreme Court will hold oral arguments in the first week of November and then issue a ruling. The relevant tariffs will continue to be implemented during the review of the case. Trump's camp has a 6-3 conservative advantage in the Supreme Court, which has previously supported Trump's policies multiple times. However, legal experts believe that the Court may take a more cautious stance on presidential authority to impose global tariffs. In recent years, the Supreme Court has used the "major question doctrine" to reject extensive administrative expansions of power in areas such as student loan forgiveness by the Biden administration, adding uncertainty to the Trump case. On the market front, the latest revised data from the United States shows that in the 12 months leading up to March of this year, the number of new jobs in the United States was revised downward by 911,000 from previous data. This indicates that the US job market was already showing signs of slowing down before Trump introduced his global tariff policy. The weakened job performance reinforces expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The CME FedWatch tool data shows that the market fully expects a 25 basis point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting, while there is also nearly a 10% probability of a one-time 50 basis point rate cut. US Treasury Secretary Bezent publicly called for the Federal Reserve to adjust its policy stance, stating that "when facts change, policy must also change." Bezent pointed out that the latest revised data proves that the economic situation at the time of Trump's inauguration was worse than initially reported, and the Fed was "strangling economic growth" with high interest rates. He expressed confidence that Trump's nominee for a new Fed board member, Milan, will be able to vote in time, and implied that the current board member in legal dispute, Koch, should not participate in the September 16-17 policy meeting. Boosted by the downward revision of employment data and rate cut expectations, US stocks hit new highs on Tuesday. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 has risen by about 11%, and the Nasdaq has gained 13%. Investors are closely watching the upcoming Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index releases, which will be important indicators to assess the impact of Trump's tariff policy on inflation and whether the Federal Reserve will take a more aggressive approach to rate cuts. Analysts believe that the Supreme Court's ruling on the tariff case and the Fed's policy decisions next week will be key variables in global financial markets in the coming months.