Oil prices stuck in a downturn due to "supply glut" market bets Brent crude will fall below $60 a barrel this year.

In the past few days, a series of bets on the international crude oil price benchmark - Brent crude oil price falling below $60 per barrel this year - have been frequently changing hands, highlighting investors actively hedging against the risk of a sharp drop in oil prices due to OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) again significantly increasing production. The current hottest option trading data shows that traders are betting that Brent crude oil will soon fall below the significant $60 per barrel mark. It is understood that in Thursday's trading, the activity of the 55-dollar and 60-dollar put options expiring in December soared, with the total open interest volume of these two types of options increasing to the equivalent of 120 million barrels of crude oil. The trading volume of the $55 put options reached its highest level since early April - at that time, OPEC+ shocked the global market by increasing production three times the originally planned amount. Brent crude oil is currently trading near $65 per barrel. Overall, the latest trading trends mentioned above show that investors increasingly believe that Brent crude oil prices will fall below $60 per barrel by the end of the year, and many Wall Street analysts and traders expect a significant oversupply of oil globally by year-end due to OPEC+ significantly increasing production and continued weak global demand due to Trump's initiation of a tariff war. Since early August, oil prices have been locked in a narrow range due to gradually easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of oversupply due to OPEC+'s production increase plan. Traders are trying to find a balance between OPEC+ production increases and tightness in the US market, as well as the possibility of a significant cooling in the large-scale military conflict between Russia and Ukraine since 2022. In recent days, there have been signs that another major OPEC+ production increase may be brewing. Media reports recently stated that Saudi Arabia, the leader of OPEC+, hopes the organization will consider increasing more crude oil production ahead of schedule to help regain market share taken by North American oil giants. According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors currently price the possibility of OPEC+ deciding to increase production ahead of schedule at 77%. The latest trading data shows that the December $60 put option contract is currently priced at $1.35 per contract, compared to $0.59 just three days ago, highlighting a surge in demand for hedging against oil ahead of the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Sunday. As the summer driving season ends, wider oil option pricing has shifted towards a more bearish trend, with put options relative to call options gaining the highest premium since early August. A drop in oil prices below $60 per barrel is a major disadvantage for Middle Eastern oil giants like Saudi Aramco, but it could be another major victory for US President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly tried to verbally intervene to lower oil prices. He hopes to continue pressuring inflation by reducing US energy costs. His initiation of a global trade war also continues to weigh on international oil prices by affecting energy consumption through threats of high tariffs. Goldman Sachs becomes the "big short" in oil: global oil oversupply situation set to worsen, Brent crude oil may fall below $50 per barrel in 2026 Brent crude oil futures continued to weaken on Friday, with a significant drop for the third consecutive trading day, falling 2.10% on Friday to close at $65.58 per barrel, marking the first weekly decline in three weeks. Previously released data showed that contrary to market expectations, crude oil inventories in the United States increased significantly by 2.4 million barrels; combined with media reports before the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, rumors stated that the oil-producing country alliance is considering further increasing oil production. Since the beginning of this year, expectations of a significant oversupply of oil in the market have been increasing, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) report released in August showing that global oil supply growth in 2025 and 2026 is expected to far exceed demand growth, possibly leading to further market imbalance. The latest research report released by Wall Street financial giant Goldman Sachs pointed out that due to the worsening oversupply in the global oil market, Brent crude oil futures prices are expected to fall below the $50 per barrel mark by the end of 2026. In a client report released on Tuesday, this American financial institution analyzed that from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026, the global oil market is expected to see an oversupply of 1.8 million barrels per day on average, leading to a significant increase of nearly 800 million barrels in global oil inventories during this period. The report emphasized in particular that the increase in inventories in OECD countries will account for one-third of the total global increase, reaching approximately 270 million barrels. Goldman Sachs also added that as oversupply and inventory pressures intensify in 2026, Brent crude oil prices are expected to fall below current market expectations in the futures market.