Goldman Sachs warns: hidden dangers behind the boom of AI concept stocks, fourth quarter may see a significant slowdown.

Stocks influenced by artificial intelligence continue to be at the center of the rise in the US stock market; however, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. also indicates that there are some risks that should not be ignored. AI-related stocks have risen by 17% so far this year, following a 32% increase in 2024. Much of this growth is driven by the strong infrastructure behind artificial intelligence, particularly investments from companies such as Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US), Alphabet (GOOGL.US), Meta (META.US), and Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US). These companies have significantly increased their capital expenditures, with total spending forecasted to reach $368 billion in 2025, an increase of $100 billion from January. In a report, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. stated: "Companies involved in this infrastructure development - such as semiconductor companies, electrical equipment companies, technology hardware companies, and power suppliers - benefit from the substantial capital expenditure investments." However, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. warns that the eventual slowdown in capital expenditures growth could put pressure on valuations. Analyst Ryan Hammond from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. said: "Broad consensus suggests that mega-cap corporates will continue to grow capital expenditures in the third quarter of 2025, which could support the performance of AI-related stocks in the second stage. However, analysts currently expect a significant slowdown in these corporates in the fourth quarter of 2025 and in 2026." Analysts note that the stocks of these large tech companies are still high, but have not reached bubble levels. The five largest companies in the index - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US), Microsoft Corporation, Apple Inc. (AAPL.US), Alphabet, and Amazon.com, Inc. - have a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 28 times, compared to 40 times at the peak in 2021 and 50 times during the tech bubble. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. also points out that from a developmental perspective, companies are still in the early stages of applying artificial intelligence. Management reviews show that many S&P 500 companies are beginning to describe detailed use cases of artificial intelligence in their own businesses. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. notes that the highest proportion (24%) of companies are discussing areas such as customer support/call centers, coding and engineering, and marketing.