Old tree sprouting new buds? U.S. coal giant predicts: electricity shortage in the United States, and coal is about to make a comeback!

Mining giant Peabody Energy (BTU.US) stated that the increasing demand for electricity in the United States could lead to a 57% increase in coal consumption. For an industry that has been declining for many years, this increase could be a significant turning point in its development. The company mentioned at an investor meeting on Wednesday that the U.S. is currently focusing on meeting the surging demand for electricity, and the Trump administration is actively taking measures to support the coal industry. In this context, Peabody expects utility companies to increase the capacity of coal-fired power plants that are currently not operating at full capacity. The company stated that if the utilization rates of these plants could be increased to "historical capacity levels," the annual demand for coal in the United States could increase by over 250 million tons in the coming years. However, analysts believe that this forecast is only a theoretical maximum and may be difficult to achieve in reality. In recent years, coal consumption in the United States has been declining as utility companies gradually phase out coal, the most polluting fossil fuel. However, the policies implemented by Trump in support of coal and against renewable energy have had practical implications, including the prevention of the closure of a power plant in Michigan that uses Peabody coal. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows that the total coal consumption in the U.S. is estimated to be 439 million tons this year, a 6.7% increase from last year, but still far from the peak of 1.13 billion tons in 2007. "Peabody believes that existing coal-fired power plants in the U.S. have enormous untapped potential," said Mark Spurbeck, CFO of the St. Louis-based company, in an email. By 2030, American Electric Power Company, Inc. expects demand to increase by 25%. This growth is mainly driven by three factors: increasing electricity demand from factories, the continuous electrification of households, and the significant increase in electricity demand brought about by the construction of data centers for artificial intelligence (AI). At the same time, supply chain bottlenecks are also hindering the construction of more natural gas power plants by utility companies. These two factors are driving the increasing reliance in the U.S. on underutilized coal-fired power plants, which have significant potential for increased electricity generation. According to Peabody's data, the overall utilization rate of coal-fired power plants in the U.S. was only 42% last year, compared to 72% in 2008. However, Andy Blumenfeld, Data Analysis Director at energy data analysis company McCloskey by Opis, pointed out that achieving a demand growth of 250 million tons would require all coal-fired power plants to increase their capacity to the historical levels before the 2008 global financial crisis, which is not feasible in reality. "This is a significant number," he said. "It is only a theoretical maximum, and it can only be achieved if all conditions are perfectly aligned, which is unlikely in reality."