Gold breakout is just beginning! Analysts predict a target price of $4000.

date
04/09/2025
avatar
GMT Eight
The price of gold has been consolidating for the past few months. Analysts point out that the longer the consolidation period, the stronger the momentum for a breakthrough.
In the past few months, the price of gold has been trading between $3200 to $3400 per ounce, causing many investors to feel frustrated. However, recently, the price of gold has broken through resistance levels and reached new highs. Analysts point out that the longer the consolidation phase of gold lasts, the stronger the momentum of the breakthrough, and now is the time for an effective breakthrough. MarketGauge's Chief Strategist Michele Schneider predicted last week that gold is about to break through $3500 and suggested that a target price of $3800 to $4000 is reasonable, followed by some profit-taking in the market. She believes that even at the current price of gold, investors will not retreat due to "fear of heights", and when investors start buying on highs, there will be a parabolic upward trend. Analysts generally believe that the strong uptrend in gold since last week is related to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift. Schneider further explained that Powell has shown the market that he is not too concerned about the inflation rate falling to 2%, and he is more focused on economic slowdown and the labor market now. This change implies that the Fed is no longer focusing on inflation, but rather exacerbating concerns about the purchasing power of the dollar. She pointed out that global investors and sovereign nations seem to be losing confidence in the dollar and favoring gold, which will reshape its status as a world currency. One-sided market On Wednesday, gold continued to rise strongly, hitting a historic high of $3616, with the current spot price in New York around $3606. In addition to the push from the increasing probability of Fed rate cuts, this trend is also related to legal challenges to Trump administration's tariff policies. The US Court of Appeals ruled this week that Trump administration's tariffs are illegal, and the Trump administration has announced that it will appeal to the US Supreme Court for further ruling, increasing market uncertainty and potential trade disputes. Tastylive's Global Macro Director Ilya Spivak stated that the Supreme Court ruling could bring a lot of uncertainty to the market, as if the ruling goes against Trump's wishes, it will completely change the global macro landscape. On the other hand, Spivak also pointed out that Trump's intervention in the Fed is a very serious issue, which has also pushed gold prices significantly higher, showing a clear one-sided upward trend. Schneider emphasized that people generally do not believe that the Fed will take necessary actions now, and they do not believe that the Trump administration knows what it is doing. Investors are flocking to gold due to widespread concerns about the US dollar as legal tender. She also predicted that silver's performance will outperform gold this year, with the key factor being the gold-silver ratio, which will drop below 80, pushing silver prices above $50 per ounce and reaching new highs. As of the time of writing, international spot silver is still fluctuating slightly above the key level of $40.