Chinese exporters pivot as US ends de minimis for the rest of the world
Chinese merchants that relied on direct-from-China shipping have accelerated a move to “local fulfilment,” leasing or subleasing warehouse space in the US so orders clear customs in bulk and last-mile delivery stays fast. Platforms built for volume and speed, like Shein and Temu, are relatively well positioned because they already operate hybrid networks that mix bonded zones, cross-docks and domestic fulfilment partners. For smaller sellers, the shift raises working-capital needs and operational complexity, but it can preserve conversion rates by keeping shipping times predictable.
Early trade data suggest the policy is already biting into direct parcel flows. The value of small parcels exported from China to the US slid sharply in July, a sign that merchants were either pausing shipments or rerouting inventory. Consultants and academics expect more sellers to pool shipments into freight consolidations bound for US distribution nodes, then break orders domestically to avoid per-package duties. That model resembles how many European cross-border brands already operate, and it favors merchants with enough scale to negotiate rates and manage returns.
The next six months will be crucial. A temporary flat-fee option for postal shippers offers a bridge, but unit economics will ultimately push more commerce into formal imports and domestic distribution. Winners will be those that can stand up compliant US inventory, improve demand forecasting to avoid dead stock, and use data to decide which SKUs should ship direct and which should live stateside. For consumers, delivery times may improve even as headline “free shipping” offers get tighter; for policymakers, the measure tests whether tariff enforcement can curb illicit flows without unduly raising costs for legitimate trade.
