Expectations of easing tensions between the US and Russia have impacted the oil market, causing both Brent and WTI to drop by more than 10% this year.

Due to traders' focus on the Washington meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky, international oil prices continued to decline. Ukrainian leaders are facing pressure from the United States to accept a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement that involves ceding territory. To show their support, European leaders such as Ursula von der Leyen, Emmanuel Macron, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg will attend this high-risk meeting. Speculation about a possible easing of sanctions on Russia and an increase in global supply at the Trump-Putin Alaska meeting had an impact on the two major oil benchmarks, with New York WTI September futures closing at $62.80 per barrel on Friday, down 1.81% intra-day; London Brent October futures closed at $65.85 per barrel, down 1.48%. As of Monday, Brent and WTI futures prices overall continued to fluctuate downward. It is understood that US President Trump said last Friday after his meeting with Russian President Putin in Alaska that he would urge Zelensky to quickly reach an agreement and expressed willingness to accept Russia's request for Ukraine to cede large areas of territory. "We still have a long way to go," US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who participated in the summit, emphasized in an interview last Sunday, "we are not close to the edge of a peace agreement yet, but progress has been made." Trump revealed to European leaders after the meeting that the US can support any security plan and Putin also showed willingness to accept. However, the specific details of the security guarantees and Russia's acceptance conditions have not been clarified. It is worth noting that before the Alaska summit, Trump had told allies that a ceasefire was his core demand and threatened to withdraw from the process if negotiations failed, as well as implement stricter sanctions on Russian oil exports. However, on Friday he said he is not in a hurry to advance punitive measures. Robert Rennie, Head of Commodity and Carbon Research at The Pacific Bank, pointed out that the positive signals from the Washington meeting may temporarily ease downward pressure on oil prices due to the postponement of tariffs on China. The market continues to be troubled by the uncertainty of a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war, leading to oil prices remaining in a narrow range. Since the beginning of the year, international oil prices have fallen by more than 10% due to the potential impact of Trump's trade policy and the OPEC+'s rapid recovery of idle capacity. The International Energy Agency released a report last week stating that due to increasing supply and slowing demand, the global oil market is expected to see a record surplus by 2026. This forecast further exacerbates the market's pessimistic outlook on oil prices in the medium to long term.