The cooling trend is gradually becoming apparent, with the unexpected decrease in job vacancies in the United States in June.

In June, the number of job vacancies in the United States decreased, ending the growth trend that had been seen for the past two consecutive months, indicating that overall labor market demand remains stable, but a cooling trend is gradually emerging. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Tuesday, the number of job vacancies in June fell to 7.44 million, lower than the revised 7.71 million in May. Economists surveyed by foreign media had previously predicted a median of 7.50 million. The decrease in job vacancies this time affected multiple industries, including accommodation and food services, healthcare, finance, and insurance, showing a broad slowdown in job demand. Although job vacancies have fallen, the current level is still higher than the pre-pandemic average, indicating that overall labor demand from employers remains healthy. However, the pace of hiring has slowed down, and the time it takes for the unemployed to find new jobs has lengthened. Data shows that the hiring rate in June fell to 3.3%, the lowest since November of last year. At the same time, there has been little change in the number of layoffs, which remains low, and the number of voluntary resignations is also low, indicating that workers are less confident in re-employment compared to last year. The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed persons remains at 1.1, an important indicator that the Federal Reserve closely monitors to assess the balance between labor supply and demand. In comparison, this ratio reached 2 to 1 during the peak in 2022, reflecting that the current labor market supply and demand is gradually returning to normal. It is worth noting that some economists have questioned the reliability of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data, citing reasons such as low response rates and frequent large revisions. However, a similar indicator released by the job listing website Indeed shows that the number of job postings in June also decreased, continuing the steady downward trend seen this year. With a series of employment data being released ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, the labor market conditions have become a key point of discussion. Federal Reserve Chair Powell previously stated that the labor market remains "strong" and cited uncertainties related to tariffs and their impact on inflation as one of the reasons for keeping interest rates unchanged. The market widely expects that this meeting will maintain interest rates, but some officials may raise objections, advocating support for the slowing job market. The upcoming July non-farm payroll report to be released this Friday will provide further clues on the temperature of the labor market. The market expects the report to show signs of slowing job growth and rising unemployment rates.