iPhone demand experiences "roller coaster" ride UBS Group AG gives Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) a "neutral" rating.

After experiencing a significant demand fluctuation in the second quarter of 2024, UBS Group AG has released a research report giving Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) a "neutral" rating with a target price of $210. iPhone demand weakened significantly in June, as market concerns arose about potential price hikes due to increased tariffs. This led to a significant increase in early purchases in April and May, beyond seasonal patterns. UBS Group AG forecasts a 18% year-on-year decline in iPhone sales in June. Therefore, the bank estimates that iPhone shipments in the June quarter of 2025 will be around 45 million units, a 3.4% increase compared to the previous year, exceeding the previous estimate by about 1.5 million units. Furthermore, the weakening of the US dollar in this quarter has turned the previously expected "slight drag" from exchange rate factors into a "slight positive". As a result, UBS Group AG has slightly raised its forecast for the June quarter, but lowered expectations for the September quarter, as iPhone demand may continue to be weak, falling below seasonal levels due to early purchases in previous months. Despite the early release of iPhone demand in April/May and the decline in demand in June, with some benefit from exchange rate factors, UBS Group AG still expects iPhone revenue to be lower than previously expected. Therefore, as mentioned earlier, the bank has lowered its EPS forecast for the September quarter from $1.68 to $1.64 (market consensus expected $1.67). For the fiscal year 2025, UBS has raised its full-year EPS forecast from $7.13 to $7.15 (market consensus expected $7.16); and for the fiscal year 2026, the EPS forecast has increased slightly from $7.39 to $7.40, significantly below the market consensus of $7.75.