Behind the repeated highs of the US stock market hides hidden worries! The weakening momentum may indicate that the bullish trend is peaking.

Currently, the US stock market is close to historical highs, as the market generally believes that the US economy is still strong under Trump's tariff policy, and inflation remains moderate. However, behind the appearance of the US stock market continuously breaking historical highs this month, there are signs that this upward trend is losing momentum. The S&P 500 index has not had a daily fluctuation of 1% for 17 consecutive trading days, the longest period of relative calm since last December. Matt Maley, Chief Market Strategist at investment firm Miller Tabak, believes that this reduced volatility indicates that the market's momentum is weakening after a strong rebound following the low point caused by tariffs in April. There are other signs showing that momentum is diminishing. Dan Greenhaus, Chief Market Strategist at Solus Alternative Asset Management, pointed out that the proportion of S&P 500 index component stocks above their 20-day or 50-day moving averages has recently decreased, indicating that this upward trend may be losing momentum. Matt Maley states that against the backdrop of continuous news about the position of the Federal Reserve chair and Trump's trade war in recent weeks, investors seem to be tired of waiting for more stocks to join the tech-led rise in the US stock market. He said, "Whenever a narrow uptrend begins to lose momentum, it usually means that investors begin to look for signs of a broader uptrend. When they do not see these signs, they often temporarily withdraw from the market." The current cautious attitude of investors is understandable, as a new round of earnings season has just begun, trade negotiations are still ongoing, and the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve may not consider cutting interest rates for several months. Aaron Nordvik, Head of Macro Equity Strategy at UBS Group AG Securities, believes that the tailwinds driving the stock market up are diminishing, such as the historical trend of strong stock market performance in July. He said, "I have always been very bullish on the market, but now most of the good news is already reflected in stock prices." Although Nordvik believes that the stock market will not experience a sharp decline, he points out that the risk-return ratio of the stock market is not as attractive as it was a few weeks ago. However, market volatility may intensify this week. Two companies that have supported the rise of US stocks in recent years - Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) and Alphabet Inc. Class C parent company Alphabet (GOOGL.US) - will release earnings reports this week. The market is once again highly focused on these companies' spending plans, especially their investments in the field of artificial intelligence. Next up is the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on July 30. The market widely expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, but all eyes will be on Fed Chairman Powell to see if he will respond to Trump's continued pressure for rate cuts, or to media reports suggesting he may be dismissed by the president. It is worth noting that the reduction in market volatility can also be seen as a reason for the stock market to continue rising - the so-called "fear index" is not far from its annual low. Dan Greenhaus said, "Considering the better-than-expected inflation and economic data released so far, as well as the fairly good company performance comments, I am not sure whether we should rely too much on technical analysis at the moment." Dave Lutz, stock sales trader and macro strategist at Jonestrading, also pointed out, "There is an old saying on Wall Street, 'Never short a quiet market.' History shows that quiet markets often rise slowly." For investors waiting for new catalysts to re-enter the market, the earnings season has not yet brought decisive signals. While US corporate performance is generally solid, the market reaction has been relatively subdued, causing concern that most of the positives have already been absorbed by the current high valuation of the historical high market. Despite recent economic data supporting a bullish stance on the stock market, strategists at Citigroup also stated that these positive factors have largely been reflected in stock prices. Scott Chronert, Head of US Equity Strategy at Citigroup, wrote in a report last Friday, "The problem lies in the current market environment. It feels like the market has already risen before the good news has truly materialized."