Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures all rise simultaneously, Trump may allow retirement funds to invest in cryptocurrencies and gold.

1. Before the opening of the US stock market on July 18 (Friday), futures of the three major US stock indexes rose. As of the time of writing, the Dow Jones futures rose by 0.13%, S&P 500 futures rose by 0.11%, and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.09%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index fell by 0.13%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.08%, the French CAC40 index rose by 0.10%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.09%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 1.23% to $68.37 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 1.04% to $70.24 per barrel. Market News Good news for the cryptocurrency market again! It is reported that President Trump will allow 401(k) retirement plans to invest in alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies, gold, and private equity funds. According to three sources, President Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order allowing 401(k) retirement plans to invest in alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies, gold, and private equity funds. The order is expected to be issued as early as this week, expanding the investment options for 401(k) plans beyond traditional stocks, bonds, and mutual fund portfolios. The executive order will instruct Washington regulatory agencies to identify and remove remaining regulatory barriers that hinder professional management 401(k) plans from providing exposure to non-traditional assets. After the "Genius Act" is passed, the SEC chairman speaks out: balancing the innovation exemption related to cryptocurrency regulation. Following the passage of a landmark stablecoin bill by the US House of Representatives earlier this week, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Paul Atkins stated that the commission is considering an innovation exemption to incentivize tokenization regulation. Atkins stated at a press conference, "Staff is considering what other changes may be appropriate within our regulatory framework to encourage tokenization, including an innovative exception, allowing new trading methods and more narrow forms of relief to foster the establishment of other components of the tokenized securities ecosystem." House approves $9 billion spending cut plan, US public broadcasting faces "food crisis." With the House approving a $9 billion spending reduction plan, federal funding for public television and broadcasting institutions is abruptly halted after half a century. The plan was inspired by the "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE) led by Elon Musk. The bill was passed in the House by a vote of 216 in favor and 213 against. Earlier on Thursday, the bill passed in the US Senate with a vote of 51 in favor and 48 against, and is now awaiting President Donald Trump's signature. In addition to cutting $1.1 billion in public broadcasting funds, the bill also terminates a series of foreign aid programs and closes the US Institute of Peace. Tech stocks on the rise in the US stock market? Trump's "AI Action Plan" set to be unveiled: focus on relaxing regulations and developing energy sources. President Trump is expected to announce policy guidelines on artificial intelligence that will call for relaxing regulations and expanding the energy sources of data centers, while urging the US Congress to consider federal legislation to preemptively prevent states from regulating this emerging technology. Trump's so-called "AI Action Plan" is expected to be announced in the coming days. Earlier this year, Trump ordered the development of a comprehensive framework outlining key measures to accelerate the development of artificial intelligence in the United States. According to those who heard briefings from government officials, Trump is expected to sign several executive orders to implement some of the policies in the plan. Uncommon dovish tone! Federal Reserve Chairman candidate Waller: interest rates should be reduced in July to support the labor market. Federal Reserve Board member Waller stated that policymakers should lower interest rates this month to support the labor market that shows signs of weakening. Federal Reserve officials will hold a meeting in Washington D.C. on July 29th and 30th. In a prepared speech on Thursday, he stated, "Given that inflation is close to target levels and the risks of rising inflation are limited, we should not wait for the labor market to deteriorate before lowering the policy rate. I believe that it is reasonable to lower the Federal Open Market Committee's policy rate by 25 basis points in two weeks." Waller's remarks put him in sharp contrast with most other policymakers, who generally believe that the employment situation remains healthy. He said, "Looking at this detailed data and key indicators, my impression is that the current labor market is at a critical point." Individual Stock News American Express Company (AXP.US) Q2 transaction volume exceeds $416 billion, beating expectations. American Express Company's financial performance in the second quarter was impressive: the credit card and other product transaction volume reached $416.3 billion after currency adjustments, exceeding analysts' expectations of $412.8 billion; total revenue, excluding interest expenses, increased by 9.3% year-on-year to $17.9 billion, mainly benefiting from increased credit card spending, net interest income from growth in revolving loan balances, and increased credit card fees. The total provision for credit losses was $1.4 billion, higher than the $1.3 billion in the same period last year, but slightly lower than analysts' expectations of $1.46 billion (the increase in provisions was due to growth in loan balances and cardholder receivables). The company reiterated its full-year revenue growth forecast of 8%-10% and earnings per share expected to be between $15 and $15.50. Despite intensifying competition in the high-end credit card market, American Express Company plans to upgrade its popular Platinum card in the fall to consolidate its position in the high-end market. Chevron Corporation (CVX.US) wins arbitration with Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM.US) regarding the Guyana oil field. After the arbitration panel rejected Exxon Mobil Corporation's claim [that it had the right to acquire HES's assets in the Guyana offshore through a bid contract], Chevron Corporation explicitly stated that it would continue with its plan to acquire HES for $53 billion. As of the time of writing, Chevron Corporation rose over 3% and HES rose over 7%. Netflix (NFLX.US) Q2 earnings exceed expectations, raises full-year revenue and profit margin guidance. While other media companies are divesting assets and cutting costs, Netflix continues to thrive. The streaming giant's second-quarter financial report released on Thursday showed that all major financial metrics exceeded investors' expectations, and the company also raised its full-year revenue and profit margin guidance. The report showed that Netflix's Q2 revenue increased by 15.9% year-on-year to $11.08 billion, better than analysts' consensus of $11.06 billion. Diluted earnings per share were $7.19, exceeding analysts' consensus of $7.08, compared to $4.88 in the same period last year. Looking ahead, Netflix expects its annual revenue in 2025 to be between $44.8 billion and $45.2 billion, higher than the previous expectation of $43.5 billion to $44.5 billion; the expected operating profit margin for the full year is 29.5%, higher than the previous forecast of 29%. Increased trading volume drives Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Class A (IBKR.US) Q2 earnings above expectations. Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Class A released its second-quarter financial report after the US market closed on Wednesday, with revenue and profits beating Wall Street's expectations, mainly driven by the surge in client trading activity and steady growth in net interest income. The electronic brokerage saw a 20.3% increase in revenue to $1.48 billion in Q2, surpassing analysts' average expectations, compared to $1.23 billion in the same period last year, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.51, higher than analysts' expectations of $0.46. This quarter, commission income rose by 27% to $516 million, driven by higher trading volumes in stocks, options, and futures of clients by 31%, 24%, and 18% respectively. Due to growth in client credit balances and securities lending business, Q2 net interest income rose by 9% to $860 million, including a one-time tax benefit of $26 million. AI-driven Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM.US) sees 30% growth expectations, while capital spending remains unchanged! Political risk in GEO Group Inc is a primary consideration. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR, as a leader in the global semiconductor foundry industry, not only demonstrated strong performance growth in the second quarter of 2025 but also drew market attention to its cautious approach to capital expenditure planning. Despite strong demand for AI chips, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR chooses to maintain its 2025 capital expenditure plan in the range of $38 billion to $42 billion, consistent with previous expectations, which reflects the company's high level of caution in the current macroeconomic environment. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang stated in an interview after the financial report that the company is currently focused on macro uncertainty, especially risks related to tariff policies, and is therefore adopting a very cautious attitude when planning capital expenditures. Surging ahead! NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) soars over 80%, overheating alarms sound. While investors in NVIDIA Corporation continue to find reasons to increase their holdings, this rapid uptrend has shown signs of overheating. On Thursday, the chip maker's 14-day relative strength index (RSI) briefly crossed the 80 mark, reaching a peak since June 2024when the stock subsequently plummeted by over 20% over the following six weeks. This momentum indicator tracks the speed of recent price fluctuations, and when the reading exceeds 70, some analysts see it as a buy signal that is overheated. BTIG's chief market technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky stated, "The overbought condition is very evident, although it does not necessarily mean a reversal is imminent, caution is indeed needed. Market sentiment is transitioning from optimistic to near euphoric." Largest M&A in the US railway industry emerging? United The Pacific (UNP.US) reportedly considering acquiring Norfolk Southern (NSC.US). According to sources, United The Pacific is considering acquiring Norfolk Southern Corporation, which, if completed, would be the largest M&A in the history of the US railway industry. These negotiations are still in the early stages, and it is currently uncertain whether the two companies can reach an agreement. This deal would merge the two largest railway companies in the US, with the combined company's market value approaching $200 billion. Important Economic Data and Events 20:00 Beijing time: US June Housing Starts Annualized Total (Thousands). 20:30 Beijing time: US June Building Permits MoM Preliminary (%). 22:00 Beijing time: US July University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Preliminary. 01:00 the next day Beijing time: US Weekly Total Oil and Gas Rigs as of July 18. 03:30 the next day Beijing time: CFTC releases weekly Commitments of Traders report. (Note: The translation provided above is a combination of automated translation and manual editing. Please refer to the original text in Chinese for complete accuracy.)