Hong Kong: 10% of respondents expect the business situation in the third quarter of 2025 to be better than the previous quarter.

On July 18, the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department published the results of the Quarterly Business Tendency Survey for the third quarter of 2025. Overall, in terms of the industries covered by this survey, the proportion of respondents (10%) expecting better business conditions in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter was lower than the proportion expecting worse conditions (18%). Compared to the results of the second quarter of 2025, the proportion of respondents expecting improved business conditions in the third quarter of 2025 was 10%, slightly higher than the corresponding proportion in the second quarter of 2025 (9%). The proportion of respondents expecting worse business conditions was roughly the same as in the second quarter of 2025 (18%). In terms of industry analysis, in many covered industries, respondents generally expected worse business conditions in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the second quarter of 2025. Particularly in the transportation, warehousing, and courier services industry, there were significantly more respondents expecting worse business conditions in the third quarter of 2025. The results of the survey need to be carefully interpreted. In surveys of this kind concerning outlook, respondents' opinions may be influenced by various events in society during the interview period, and it is difficult to determine the extent to which respondents' views of the future correspond with the underlying trends. The interview period for this round of the survey was from June 3, 2025, to July 7, 2025. Business/Output Volume In many covered industries, respondents generally expected a decrease in business/output volume in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the second quarter of 2025. Especially in the construction industry, transportation, warehousing and courier services, import/export trade and wholesale industries, accommodation and food services, and retail industries, there were more respondents expecting a decrease in construction output/commercial output/sales volume in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the second quarter of 2025. Employment In many covered industries, respondents generally expected the number of employees to remain roughly the same in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the second quarter of 2025. However, in the information and communication industry, more respondents expected a decrease in the number of employees in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the second quarter of 2025. On the other hand, in the real estate industry, there were more respondents expecting an increase in employment than those expecting a decrease. Product Prices/Service Charges In most covered industries, respondents generally expected product prices/service charges to remain roughly the same in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the second quarter of 2025. However, in the construction industry, significantly more respondents expected a decrease in tender prices in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the second quarter of 2025. A spokesperson for the Hong Kong government stated that the overall short-term business prospects for large enterprises in the third quarter of 2025 have slightly improved compared to the previous quarter, and hiring intentions remain stable. Looking ahead, the spokesperson noted that the continued uncertainty in the external environment will continue to affect the local business atmosphere in Hong Kong. However, the local economy in Hong Kong remains resilient, and the mainland economy continues to grow steadily, which should provide support.