Stock market performance warning signal! Over half of American companies are expecting tariffs to consume at least a quarter of their revenue.

A business survey shows that American companies are generally extremely concerned about the negative impact of President Donald Trump's constantly changing tariff policies on revenue. A recent survey conducted by HSBC Holdings Plc showed that more than half of the surveyed American companies expect the tariff policies to reduce their overall revenue by at least 25%. In this business trade survey released by HSBC on Friday, about a quarter of American companies surveyed said that their revenue scale in the next two years would decrease by more than half due to the impact of tariff policies on the supply chain. In contrast, the survey by HSBC showed that Chinese companies appear more optimistic and confident about a new round of tariff battles. Only about one-fourth of Chinese companies expect revenue to decline by 25% or more, but still more than half of the companies expect revenue to decrease by 10% to 25%. Based in London, HSBC is one of the world's largest trade financing banks, and this report is based on a survey of over 5,700 international companies in 13 countries. The survey found that widespread concerns about Trump's tariff policies are deepening, with two-thirds of surveyed international companies saying they have incurred higher costs due to tariffs and trade uncertainty. "Every company we interviewed is planning to reshape their supply chains, expand into new markets, or change their business models," said Vivek Ramachandran, global head of trade solutions at HSBC, in an interview with the media on Friday. "Over the past few decades, companies have generally built supply chains to minimize costs; now, they need to make their supply chains resilient and able to quickly adjust to geopolitical factors. This is a big challenge for all global companies." The pessimistic outlook of American companies for future performance may be a negative signal for the broader stock market - the S&P 500 Index. After a six-week rapid rebound, the US stock market has still lagged behind global stock markets. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts said that in order to maintain the momentum and regain its usual leadership position, US companies' profit engines need to accelerate again. "Historical data shows that the outperformance of the US stock market relative to international markets has always depended on the ability of US companies to achieve faster earnings growth, and this negative change in dynamics could be challenging the notion of American exceptionalism," said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Nathaniel Welnhofer. In the latest earnings season, US corporate executives have issued warnings about the outlook, blaming rising costs, weak consumer confidence, and low business confidence on the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on global trading partners. An analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence stock strategists Gina Martin Adams and Wendy Soong shows that the so-called earnings guidance momentum, a measure of the proportion of companies in the S&P 500 Index that have raised earnings expectations versus those that have maintained or lowered expectations, has fallen to its lowest level since at least 2010. In contrast, according to the latest earnings season data, European companies have much more optimistic expectations about Trump's tariff policies than American companies. European companies have delivered much stronger results than expected in the critical earnings disclosure season faced with a new round of global tariff wars initiated by the Trump administration, providing strong logical support for the region's stock market's "bull market trajectory". According to the latest data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, most industries in Europe achieved sales growth and significantly improved profit margins in the first quarter, driving a 5% year-on-year growth in earnings per share (EPS) for listed companies in the European stock market, far better than the expected 1.5% decline predicted by the financial markets. Although some European companies have been punished by the market for failing to meet earnings and revenue expectations, the overall tone of the new trade war is not concerning, as executives are generally emphasizing that the direct impact of the trade war on company finances is very limited due to mitigation strategies and positive progress in US-China trade relations. CEOs of European companies generally have an optimistic tone when discussing the tariff storm led by Trump, focusing more on the potential US-China and US-EU trade agreements. Bright financial data and positive performance outlooks have led most Wall Street strategists to raise their outlook ratings for the European stock market, and they are starting to anticipate that the bull market in European stocks will continue for the remainder of the year. Goldman Sachs' strategy team also raised its expectations for earnings growth in the European stock market from negative growth (-7% in 2025) to a significant increase to 0%, and expects a 4% growth in 2026 (previously zero growth). Goldman Sachs attributed the upward revision of EPS mainly to strong first-quarter financial results and the possibility of a significant improvement in the economic outlook in Europe under stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, believing that fiscal stimulus in Germany and the continued rate cuts by the European Central Bank will further support the European market.